High prices, reduced food consumption. The 14th edition of Osservatorio Immagino

Food consumption by Italians remains contracted due to the spike in prices, also in the 14th edition of the Osservatorio Immagino. The new GS1 Italy report cross-references information from labels of over 136,000 products with NielsenIQ data on sales in hypermarkets and supermarkets in Italy from June 2022 to June 2023. (1)

The metaproduct of Osservatorio Immagino

The Immagino metaproduct It is the statistical indicator that calculates the average nutritional profile of over 80,000 products. In this edition, the indicator shows the growing success of proteins – as well as slight reductions in carbohydrates, sugars, fats, saturated fats, and Kcal – in the dietary choices of Italians. Unfortunately, it does not indicate the trend of salt.

The average nutritional table per 100g of product is as follows:

• 175.9 Kcal. Slightly decreased (-1% compared to the previous survey);
• fats, 8.5g. Slight decrease, -2.1%, thanks to lower contributions from categories such as seed oil, extra virgin olive oil, olive oil, tuna in oil, butter, snacks, and mayonnaise;
• saturated fats, 2.9g. Minimal decrease, -0.9%, linked to lower consumption of seed oil, extra virgin oil, butter, multipack ice creams, mozzarellas and pandoro, partly offset by increased consumption of hen eggs and sports nutrition;
• carbohydrates, 19.3g (-1%);
• sugars, 7.3g (-1.4%). A trend that can also be deduced from the success of the claims referring to the reduced sugar content, as we will see;
• fiber, 2.1g (-0.2%). The label indication of fiber quantity is optional and is specified only on 49,275 products. The average intake remains at the levels of the previous survey, thanks to the combined effect of the greater contribution of traditional biscuits, sports nutrition, preserved beans, extruded products, sweet spreads, chips, tomato puree, frozen pizzas and milk substitutes, combined with lower consumption of wholegrain/multigrain biscuits, natural/frozen vegetables and fruit, flours/mixes, pasta made ofsemolina, whole wheat/spelt/kamut pasta/legume-based and snacks;
• proteins, 6.7g (+1%). The growth is driven by higher average consumption of hen eggs, sports foods, fresh desserts, UHT milk, fourth poultry processing, sweet spreads, grana cheeses and similar, traditional cookies, flatbreads, sandwich bread and UHT milk-based beverages.

Italianity in decline

Italian origin of the foods – first claim examined in the 14th edition of the Osservatorio Immagino – is highlighted on the label of almost 26 thousand products. Among these, however, the trend is a generalized decline in volume sales (value sales still remain positive due to price increases). In detail:

- Italian flag. The most used recognition sign (over 15 thousand products) this year is combined with a 4% contraction in volume sales. However, revenue increases: volume sales mark +11.4%, for a total turnover of 6.5 billion euros. The most penalized categories are cold cuts, frozen pizzas, and fresh milk.

- 100% Italian. The 8,339 products bearing this claim on the package drop by -4.1% in volume and gain +13.8% in value. The greatest volume declines concern cold cuts, alcoholic beers, fourth-range vegetables, and multipack ice creams;

- made in Italy. Here emerges the worst trend among signs of Italianity, with -7.9% volume sales and +4.6% in value. Poor performance for basic ready sauces, recurring eggs >30 grams, Italian DOC and DOCG wines, prepared breaded frozen fish and frozen ready meals.

Geographical Indications (GIs)

DOP, DOP and DOCG indications appear on 4,494 products, with a turnover of nearly 1.5 billion euros in the supermarket and hypermarket channel. Overall sales show -2.7% in value and -2.6% in volume.

Driving the decline in volume especially DOC and DOCG wines, dry Charmat sparkling wine and classic sparkling wine. Instead, the 1,286 DOP products resist, generating the highest turnover (over 691 million euros) and registering the highest growth rate in value (+11.8%), maintaining stable volumes (+0.1%).

PGI (Protected Geographical Indication) (Protected Geographical Indication) and  IGT (Typical Geographical Indication) (Typical Geographical Indication) in turn record a contraction in volume sales (-7%) and a modest increase in value sales (+1.8%). Among the 2,110 products thus labeled, cold cuts, semolina pasta, and wines in particular decline.

The region you go

The consumption depression also affects foods with prominent regional origin. The over 10,000 products in this basket show revenue growth of +7.3% (to over 3 billion euros) and volume sales at -3.9%.

Only six indications of regional origin increase sales:

- Sardinia. Good UHT milk, poor butter, fourth range vegetables, mozzarellas, and alcoholic beers. The 623 products Made in Sardinia maintain volumes (+0.5%) and increase revenue (+17.15), worth 207 million euros;

- Apulia. Of the 775 products, fresh stretched curd pasta, PGI and IGT wine, tomato puree, mozzarellas, fourth range vegetables, and whole and portioned table cheeses lead. Overall, sales mark a +16.9% value increase and +3.4% volume increase;

- Umbria. Among the 225 Umbrian products, mainly sparkling, still and lightly sparkling mineral waters, and tomato purees increase sales in large-scale retail. Overall, volumes sold grow by +3.2% and turnover by +15%, nearing 144 million euros;

- Molise. This regional indication achieves the best results of the year: +26.9% value sales and +7.5% volume. Among the 144 products, which approached 113 million euros in sell-out, semolina pasta and tomato puree stand out for growth;

- Basilicata. With just 45 products, the Lucanian origin indication is worth 22 million euros. Sales grow in value (+9%) and volume (+2.6%). Thanks especially to strawberries;

- Aosta Valley. Positive trend both in volumes (+6.6%), thanks to fourth range poultry processing (pre-cooked chicken and turkey products) and sliced table cheeses, and in sales values (+13.8%). The 31 products labeled as from Aosta Valley are worth almost 10 million euros.

Free from, low sugar and no aspartame

Among the 16 claims related to the free from world, which is worth almost 8 billion euros (+11.8%, but -4.4% in volume), only those related to sugars are associated with a numerical increase in sales, driven by fresh desserts, fruit-based drinks 30-99%, bases, traditional biscuits and drinkable yogurts:

• ‘low sugar’, +8.3% in volume and +23.6% in value;
• ‘no added sugars’, +12.1% in volume and +27% in value. We observe that this claim can almost always also be read as ‘with sweeteners’. Essentially, the sweet taste is not given up but switched to non-caloric sweeteners, sometimes problematic.

Emblematic the case of the synthetic sweetener aspartame, classified as a probable carcinogen by IARC and still authorized as well as present in numerous foods.

The most discerning consumers have learned to avoid it. The report from the Osservatorio Immagino indeed states that the claim ‘without aspartame’, present on only 66 products, supports sales in value (+10.1%) and volume (+2.8%).

‘Without antibiotics’ and other free from

The top three claims in terms of turnover in the free from basket replicate the pattern followed by almost all baskets:

• ‘without preservatives’, present on 4,351 products for a turnover of over 2.7 billion euros, marks +8.3% in value and -8.2% in volume. The decline is general but particularly marked for frozen savory specialties and mayonnaise, which also fell in value;
• ‘low fat’, identified on the labels of 3,168 products, is associated with an increase in turnover (+15.3%, up to over 1.7 billion euros) and a numerical decline in sales of -2.2%. Fresh desserts performed well, sliced meats and sweet snacks poorly;
• ‘palm oil free’, third claim by turnover, appears on 2,629 products. Turnover grew by +12.1%, up to 1.5 billion euros, but sales decreased in volume by -4.1%. Pastry, fourth poultry processing, traditional biscuits and snack cakes were the fastest growing markets; sliced bread, sweet snacks, loaf bread, breakfast cereals and sweet spreads were those in decline.

Among the 'emerging' claims, finally, 'without antibiotics' – on 330 products – records a sharp increase in turnover (+20.1%), which exceeded 273 million euros, despite a slight decline in volumes (-0.8%). Eggs grow while fish specialties and natural frozen fish products decline.

The basket of 'rich in'

The basket of 'rich in', compared to the 12 months prior to June 2023, showed the greatest volume retention capacity, declining only by -0.9%, and the highest turnover growth, increased by +13.9%.

Of the 12 claims detected by Osservatorio Immagino, only three are associated with a numerical increase in sales:

– 'proteins' is first by turnover, followed by 'fibers' and 'vitamins'. It develops a turnover of 1.7 billion euros, +19.6% in value and +4.5% in volumes. Leading products are fresh desserts, fresh milk, sports foods, grana cheeses and similar;

– 'lactic ferments' grows both in value (+15.4%) and volume (+1.3%). The 541 products with this claim on the label are worth over 405 million euros. The best results emerge for fermented milk/kefir, crescenza, whole yogurt and fresh industrial products;

– 'magnesium' also grows both in value (+10.8%) and volume (+2.9%). Osservatorio Immagino identified it on the labels of 438 products that generated 126 million euros in sales. Breakfast cereals, chamomile, sports nutrition and supplements are the best performing categories by volume.

Allergens burdened by high prices

The foods accompanied by the label indication of absence of an allergen are 10,959 for a turnover of over 4.7 billion euros. The basket overall records a turnover increase of +9.5% and a numerical sales decrease of -4.8%.

• 'Gluten free' remains first in this basket by turnover (>3.2 billion €) and number of products (8,594). As usual, turnover rises (+6.1%) and sold volumes decline (-6.8%). Poor performance in cold cuts, mayonnaise, Easter eggs and sausages.
• The 'gluten free' logo with the crossed ear of the Italian Celiac Association (AIC) appears on 1,972 products, worth a turnover of almost €668 million (+4.5%), but with a significant volume drop (-7.5%). Particularly poor are cold cuts and baby foods, natural/frozen vegetables and fruits, sweet spreads, strained Greek skyr yogurt, jams and fruit-based spreads, and frozen products.

Free from lactose and eggs

To this trend two claims are exceptions:

– ‘lactose free’ it ranks second for revenue (€ >1.9 billion) and assortment (2,727 products) and achieves the best annual performance in the basket, with sales up +16.6% in value and +0.9% in volume. Volume growth is especially strong in fresh desserts, grana and similar cheeses, functional yogurt, and UHT milk-based drinks.

– ‘egg free’ it is instead last in the ranking with just 166 references and €26 million in revenue. However, it stands out for annual volume sales growth of +2.6%. Very good results for fresh non-stuffed pasta, gluten-free fresh pasta, and healthy biscuits.

Vegetarian and surroundings

In the basket lifestyle-related claims include 13,000 products for a turnover of 4 billion euros in supermarkets and hypermarkets.

• ‘Veg’, that is vegan and/or vegetarian, is the claim worth over 2.3 billion euros in sales. The 4,800 products presented in this way have increased revenue by +11.8%, but at the cost of a sales volume decline of -2.8%, particularly in mayonnaise, mozzarella, and Greek yogurt.
• ‘Vegetarian’, observed on over 2,000 products, drives revenue up by +12.3%, reaching 1.6 billion euros. Volumes fall by -2.6%. Poor performance for mayonnaise, mozzarella, strained Greek skyr yogurt, extruded snacks, sliced table cheeses, whole/portion-cut table cheeses, and vegetable sauces/spreads.
• ‘Vegan’. Same trend as the previous two claims. The 3,630 products labeled as vegan increase revenue by +10.4%, surpassing 1.1 billion euros, but decline in volume sales by -2.3%. Poor performance for extruded snacks, natural/frozen vegetable/fruits, other infusions, and vegetable sauces/spreads.

Organic certification

The 'organic' claim is the most widespread (8,259 products) in the basket and third in turnover (1.2 billion euros). Revenue grows (+2.3%), but volumes decline significantly (-8.4%). Poor performance for fresh milk, rice cakes, whole wheat/spelt/kamut/pulse-based pasta, jams and fruit spreads.

The surveys, we remind, consider sales in supermarkets and hypermarkets. Therefore, they do not take into account additional organic distribution channels, such as specialty stores, markets, and e-commerce.

Kosher and halal

The certifications kosher and halal, which identify products made in accordance with Jewish and Muslim religious rules, have variable trends.

• Kosher is detected on 1,663 products worth 894 million euros in turnover, growing by +11.2% while volumes decrease by -4.5%. Poor performance for extra virgin olive oil, breakfast cereals, sweet spreads, pralines and chocolates, jams and fruit-based spreads.
• Halal appears on 504 certified products, which grow in value by +17.2% and – an exceptional case in the basket – also in volume, +2%. Volumes sold of semolina pasta, hard cheeses and similar, candies, and sweet snacks are increasing.

Beneficial ingredients

In each of the seven groups in which beneficial ingredients are organized, there is some positive data also in volume. Overall, however, sales of the 13,667 products in this basket have increased in value (+11.2%), reaching a turnover of over 4.3 billion euros, due to rising prices, but have decreased in volume by -2.8%.

1 – Traditional. In this group, only the claim 'caramel' increases sales volumes by +10%, but against a value increase of +41.4%. The claim 'cocoa' exceeds one billion euros in turnover, grown by +9.4% only due to price increases. Volume sales in fact decline by -4.2%, due to sweet spreads.

2 – Superfruit. Three claims show a brilliant result. 'Avocado' is confirmed to be very appreciated by Italians. The 65 references that mention it on the label have increased turnover by +37.1%, now exceeding 34 million euros, and sales volumes by +22.2%. 'Cashews’ grows by +15.5% in value and +7% in volume. It appears on 242 products for a turnover of 56 million euros. ‘Coconut water’, finally, it represents a niche of 1.6 million euros for 11 references, but records +8% in value and +4.3% in volume.

3 – Supercereals and flours. Also in this group (2,221 products) three claims, contrary to the trend, drive sales also in volume. ‘Oats’ on 623 products marks +18.4% in value, reaching a turnover of over 298 million euros. Positive sign also for volume sales (+6%), mainly thanks to UHT milk substitutes, crackers and wholemeal biscuits. Same trend for ‘Rice flour’ (+16.4% in value, +2.2% in volume) and ‘rice oil’, which appears on only 20 products, +14.2% in value and +3% in volume.

4 – Sweeteners. The two monitored claims have opposite trends. ‘Brown sugar’ loses as much as -8.7% in volume sales and increases value sales by only +3.7%. ‘Stevia’ is instead growing both in value (+8.5%) and volume (+3.7%), especially thanks to tea-based beverages, sports foods and infusions.

5 – Seeds. Weak performance for products with the five seed-related claims. ‘Flax seeds’, first in turnover with 152 million euros, also stands out for annual value growth (+20.4%) and – uniquely in the micro basket, in volume (+5.2%), also thanks to the performance of canned tuna in oil. Very bad ‘hemp seeds’, -19.4% in volume and -14.7% in value for the 52 products bearing this claim, worth 3 million euros.

6 – Spices. The group includes 896 products with over 88 million euros turnover and follows the general trend with a negative performance, -2.3% in value and -9.5% in volume. For ‘ginger’ sales down by -1.2% in value and -8.8% in volume, especially for tea and other infusions. ‘Turmeric’ loses -8.6% in value and -15.8% in volume. ‘Cinnamon’, finally, loses -2.8% in value and -9.1% in volume.

7 – Superfood. The star of the group is ‘spirulina’, with double-digit sales growth both in value (26.5%) and volume (16.2%), driven by gluten-free pasta and fresh juices. 38 products contain the powerful algae. Sales of 36 products with tea ‘matcha’ (tea and ice cream desserts): +7.6% in value and +0.5% in volume. Very bad, finally, ‘goji berries’, -24.6% in value and -27.4% in volume, and ‘açai’, -21.8% in value and -27.3% in volume.

The beauty of artisanal processing

The processing method of foods is explained with nine claims on 3,897 products. Only two indications are associated with an increase in volume sales:

– ‘artisanal’ was detected on 750 products (such as frozen pizza, cold cuts, fresh pasta, and other fresh stretched-curd cheeses) and is associated with record sales growth, both in volume (+33.9%) and value (+40.8%), exceeding 144 million euros in turnover;

– ‘not fried’ appears on 372 products. Extruded and crunchy patties are among the foods with the most dynamic trend. The basket is worth 114 million euros, growing by +13.9%. Volume sales increased by +1.3%.

The trend of the top three  claims by turnover reflects the pattern dictated by high prices:

– ‘cold extracted’ appears on 348 products, concentrated in extra virgin olive oil, worth almost 277 million euros. Turnover grew by +13.5%, while volume sales dropped by -5.9%;

– ‘extruded’ qualifies 1,295 products, essentially pasta. It represents a turnover of over 268 million euros, increased by +12.3%. Also in this case, volume sales decrease by as much as -8%. Similar is the trend of the other typical dry pasta claim, ‘drying’, which appears on 317 products and is worth 115 million euros in turnover, increased by +4.3%, but with volume sales declining (-10.1%), especially on semolina, kamut, and spelt pasta;

– ‘handmade’, third claim by turnover (over 153 million euros for 356 products), increases value sales (+6.5%) and decreases volume sales (-6.9%). Poor performance for tuna in oil, tuna recipes with side dishes, cold cuts and fish-based main courses.

Soft and fragrant texture

The texture of foods is described on the label through 11 claims. Also in this basket, notes the 14th edition of Osservatorio Immagino, there is a repeated increase in turnover (+15.4%) and a drop in sales (-2.3%), especially for the claims ‘thin’, ‘crispy’, ‘soft’ and ‘filled’.

Only two claims also increase sales in volume:

– 'soft', reported on about 1,000 products is worth almost 569 million euros. It is the most successful claim in the 12 monitored months, with a value growth of +18.5% and volume of +1.4%, thanks especially to sliced bread, sandwich bread and tramezzini bread;

– 'fragrant' qualifies 272 products. It is first for revenue growth, +18.7%, up to almost 162 million euros, and keeps sales volume substantially stable (+0.5%).

Marta Strinati

Notes

(1) Immagino Observatory, fourteenth edition 2023 • 2. GS1 Italy Services
https://servizi.gs1it.org/osservatori/osservatorio-immagino-14/