Resigned, holed up at home with consumption reduced to the bone and the fear of further worsening in a context marked by wars and inflation, after the shock of the pandemic. Italians – and their consumption – are on hold. The scenario emerging from the surveys of the Coop Italia Study Office, conducted in December 2023, confirms the 'mood' already detected in the Coop Report 2023
(1,2).
1) The fears of Italians
Coming from a difficult year and dramatic – between the war in Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the climate emergency, the economic crisis and the concrete loss of purchasing power – Italians in 2024 fear above all;
– potential new conflicts (45% of respondents),
– extreme weather events (23%),
– worsening of the international economy (22%).
The elections scheduled in 2024 in several key countries on the geopolitical chessboard (Taiwan, Russia, Iran, India, EU, United States) raise concerns in 44% of the sample.
2) Holed up and without prospects, Italians on hold
The unease generates a collective mood of resigned positivity. People seek shelter in the intimate dimension, in the family, but dare not look beyond nor do they glimpse hopes for improvement of their condition.
On the four areas crucial in changing one's life, almost one Italian in three ‘would like to but thinks it will not happen’:
– changing house (29%),
– changing country (28%),
– changing job (30%).
Becoming parents Half (51%) of 20-40 year olds interviewed are not interested. In the same age group, a further 28% would like to have a child but already foresees that it will not be possible.
3) More will be spent only on health and food
In 2024 intentions to spend more are declared only for two expenditure items:
– health and well-being is expected to be an increasing spending area for 24% of the sample. 26% of respondents declare that they intend to spend more on prevention and check-ups, 23% on routine analyses. It goes without saying that much of this consumption will flow into private healthcare, given the conditions of the public system. (3) Among the good intentions for the new year, 17% of respondents include spa, meditation and relaxation techniques,
– food consumption domestic is the second area where 16% of Italians intend to spend more.
4) Healthy and moderate food expenditure
Food will be mostly cooked at home. Almost a third of Italians (31%) declare that they will dedicate more time to cooking at home, to combine quality and savings.
The need to save also applies to food spending. The main purchasing drivers are:
– quality-price ratio, in first place (66% of consumers interviewed in Italy),
– convenience and savings (50%),
– health and well-being (41%).
The first five adjectives chosen by respondents to define food in 2024 are:
– healthy (45%),
– inexpensive (44%),
– sustainable (27%),
– simple/authentic (26%)
– essential (25%).
5) Fruit and vegetables return to the table
On the 2024 table fruit and vegetables also return, which in summer 2023 seemed to have been greatly sacrificed by Italians. Fruit and vegetables lead the Top 5 products increasing in 2024, followed by fish (whose consumption has also declined in recent years).
Declining consumption forecasts, however, for less healthy foods:
– sweets (41% of the sample will reduce them),
– red meat (34%),
– cured meats and cold cuts (37%),
– spirits (33%).
6) The large-scale retail trade and macroeconomic forecasts
On the macroeconomic front, the managers interviewed by the Coop Research Office consider the recession now avoided. However, the estimated GDP growth in Italy is moderate (0.5% for the next 12 months), below the European average. 83% of the same sample is convinced that in Italy the pockets of poverty and phenomena of social and economic vulnerability will increase.
The research of a food expenditure that combines convenience and quality leads Italians to believe in the continued growth of 'private labels' (or MDD, distributor brand).
The sales trend for brands in 2024, according to the managers interviewed, will follow these trends:
– growth of private labels (according to 81% of respondents), as well as fantasy brands of discount stores and local brands (both according to 57% of managers),
– reduction of industrial brands. The sharpest decline is expected for minor brands and 'followers' (respectively for 51% and 48% of respondents). Even for leading brands, a loss of market share is expected (according to 36% of experts).
Marta Strinati
Notes
(1) Consumption forecasts 2024. Coop Italy. 5.1.24 https://www.coop.it/news/coop-previsioni-consumi-2024
(2) Marta Strinati. Italy is sad. Consumption and mood of Italians in the Coop Report 2023. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade). 7.9.23
(3) Marta Strinati. 45 years of the National Health System. GIMBE's initiatives to revive it. Equality. 23.12.23
Professional journalist since January 1995, she has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and magazines (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). Author of food investigative reports, she published the volume 'Reading labels to know what we eat'.
