Food spending is subject to continuous price increases, with inflation reaching +6.2% year-on-year in April. To face yet another crisis, Italians are changing sales channels and purchasing strategies.
Inflation on food spending
The survey ‘Impact of inflation on Italian consumption’ by ISMEA involved 3,000 families (representative of the Italian sample). (1)
Over 60% of respondents have a realistic understanding of the situation and believe inflation will rise sharply, up to 10%, in the next three months.
The remaining 40% of the sample is split in half, between pessimists (mainly very young low-income residents in the South) who believe price increases will exceed 10% by summer, and optimists who expect inflation to fall back below 3%.
Concerns about essential food items
Among sacrifices Italians mainly give up travel (23%), entertainment and eating out (21%), and clothing (15%). Only 1% of the sample fears being forced to cut also the budget for food spending.
The fear most widespread is the price increase of essential food items (94% of respondents). But more than half (52%) even express concern about not finding products on the shelves anymore.
In search of convenience
The research for affordable prices relaunches the hypermarket channel, heavily penalized in 2020, with the lockdowns that forced purchases near home. 70% of respondents consider it the ideal store to find the best combination of assortment/offers.
58% of the sample then expects to change the point of sale or brand in search of greater discounts of the sample then expects to change the point of sale or brand in search of greater discounts, 57% to head towards the discount and 35% towards local markets.
13% of families state that they also want to rely onecommerce in the search for convenience. However, this convenient option is rarely a source of savings in food shopping, as we have seen.
Less waste, more planning
To face the impact of inflation on food expenses, Italians rely on a forced savings strategy that also has positive aspects.
68% of families interviewed expect to reduce food waste, which is excessive today, and almost half (48%) to reduce superfluous purchases and pay more attention to the quality-price ratio and price/weight ratio in purchases. Learning to check the price per kg instead of per package is an attitude full of surprises.
The good habit of planning purchases with a list is the intention of 38% of respondents.
Hard times for premium brands?
For brands that dominate the market, sometimes more for advertising campaign than for the real quality of the product, the balance could change. A perspective, moreover, anticipated by Coop's turnaround, which has strongly relaunched its branded products, aiming at a better quality/price ratio.
The interviewees indeed state their intention to give up premium products (27%), brands, except when on promotion (22%), to turn to distributor brands (14%) and to reduce quantities in favor of quality (9%).
Quality, according to 70% of respondents, is of 100% Italian products. Almost one in two also considers indispensable Dop/Igp products, from sustainable or organic farming.
I driver of choice
I driver of choice change depending on the product:
– known brand (brand). It is considered important in the choice of pasta (29%), frozen foods (27%), tomato puree (24%) and milk (20%),
– origin of raw materials. It is the first driver choice for meat, fruit, vegetables, eggs, extra virgin olive oil, for a percentage of consumers between 66% and 58%,
– sustainability guarantee. It mainly affects the purchase of eggs (14%), fresh bread (10%), white meat and red meat (both 9%),
– organoleptic quality. Bread leads with 44%, followed by wine and cheeses (37%), seasonal fruit (31%).
Inflation and portions of food expenditure
TheISMEA survey also questioned families on the demand elasticity in the face of rising prices.
The result reflects spending capacity. To varying degrees, Italians expect to purchase the same quantities of the following food groups:
– bread, milk and extra virgin olive oil, basic foods in the Italian diet, for 35% of respondents,
– eggs and fresh fruit, other basic foods, 33% of the sample,
– fish (22%),
– cheese (20%),
– wine (19%),
– frozen foods (18%).
The effects The effects of inflation on food spending are severe. However, ISMEA respondents state that if the price increase is contained within 3%, habits do not change even for wine (47%), frozen foods (45%), and purees (41%).
The managers of public goods, rarely confronted with the need to sustain the population, can also draw suggestions from this survey.
Professional journalist since January 1995, she has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and magazines (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). Author of journalistic investigations on food, she published the volume 'Reading labels to know what we eat'.
