Food consumption in Italy in the 16th edition of the Immagino Observatory

The sixteenth edition of the Immagino Observatory – offered by GS1 Italy based on NielsenIQ data, with detailed analysis of consumption trends on over 138,000 shelf products in supermarkets and hypermarkets – shows a slight easing of the inflation wave and the slow recovery of food consumption in Italy, in the second half of the 12 months ending June 2024.

The contraction in numerical sales decreases or returns to acceptable levels relative to turnover, compared to the dramatic data from the previous report.

The price increase is significant on extra virgin olive oil. The Italian identity of food and drinks derails, while attention to health (less sugar and fat) and risks related to pesticide residues reemerge. However, there is still no distinction between products presented with claims such as ‘residue-free’ or ‘glyphosate-free’ and those derived from organic farming.

1) Immagino metaproduct, the nutritional profiles

The metaproduct is a synthetic statistical indicator created by the Immagino Observatory. It presents itself as an average nutritional label of food consumption in Italy in the 12 months ending June 2024.

The average nutritional profile of food consumption (in supermarkets and hypermarkets) shows:

• fats increasing (+0.8% total fats, and +0.9% saturated fats)
• carbohydrates stable (-0.1%),
• sugars decreasing (-1.5%)
• proteins increasing (+0.9%, continuing the previous 12 months, +1%)
• dietary fibers slightly increasing (+0.3%).

It follows a slight increase in the energy value of the Immagino meta-product, with a calorie growth (+0.5%).

The analysts unfortunately do not monitor the average salt content, an important data also in view of product reformulation and other public health protection measures.

2) ‘Made in Italy’ in decline

The reference to Italian-ness appears on the label of 26,411 products. It is the most important basket among those analyzed by Osservatorio Immagino. It represents a turnover of almost 11.4 billion euros (in the supermarket and hypermarket channels alone) but continues to lose ground, except for PDO products.

The turnover has grown by +2.1%, but volume sales have decreased by -2%, as in the previous year. In detail, in order of basket weight:

– the Italian flag, which 'waves' on over 15,000 products, is associated with a turnover increase of +3.3% (up to almost 7 billion euros) but a volume sales decline of -1.6%. UHT and fresh milk, fourth range vegetables (packaged) and third poultry processing (i.e., meat products with condiments and spices and ready to cook) perform poorly

– 100% Italian, claim present on over 8,500 products, has increased turnover by +2.4% but lost -2.1% in volume sales. Declines in UHT milk, fresh milk, durum wheat pasta, snacks, and alcoholic beers

– produced in Italy, claim present on 5,771 products, shows the effect of price increases with a drastic volume sales drop (-3.6%) corresponding to a slight value increase (+0.7%, for a total of 1.4 billion euros). Decline in Italian wine (Doc/Docg and Igp/Igt), Easter eggs, fourth range vegetables, classic sparkling wine, and durum wheat pasta.

3) Geographical indications

The geographical indications which certify the Italian origin of the products are not doing better. Sales of DOP cold cuts, wine, and classic Doc/Docg sparkling wines are declining. IGP and IGT products are also losing ground, particularly cold cuts, wines, durum wheat pasta, and bread substitutes:

– DOP. The protected designation of origin is the leading geographical indication by sales value, over 723 million euros. It is the only one to record, in the 12 months ending June 2024, an increase in sales volume (+2.1%) and value (+3.5%)

– DOC. The 2,282 wines thus labeled have generated almost 538 million euros, +1.5% in value but -2.2% in volume

– DOCG. The 989 wines with this indication lost -2.8% in sales volume. Revenue remains almost stable (+0.6%) at over 304 million euros

– IGP. The 1,222 products accompanied by this indication are worth over 477 million euros, with revenue down -0.5% and volume sales down -2.3%

– IGT. Sales of the 932 wines with Typical Geographical Indication collapse in volume (-7.7%), with a slight decline in value (-0.9%, 176 million euros).

4) Regionality on the label

The indication of regional origin appears on 10,294 products, with a total value of over 3 billion euros.

The sales trend is always negative in volume (-2.6%) and substantially stable in value, +0.7%.

4.1) Leading regions in decline

The top three regions in the ranking by turnover confirm the described trend:

– Trentino-Alto Adige. Stable in first position, with over 392 million euros in sales generated by 967 products, it loses -3% in volume sales and maintains stable turnover, +0.4%. Classic sparkling wine, cold cuts, UHT milk, cubed cured meats, (skim and drinkable) yogurt, and apples decline. Meanwhile, Doc or Docg wines, whole and functional yogurt, fresh milk, and mozzarella do well.

– Sicily. Stable in second place in the ranking with a turnover of over 377 million euros for its 1,176 products, it loses -3.5% in volumes sold and maintains stable revenue, +0.2%. Very poor performance by Doc or Docg wines, multipack ice creams, alcoholic beers, and fortified/passito wines.

– PiedmontThird position confirmed, with over 319 million euros in sales made by 1,271 products. Sales down by -3.6% in volume and -0.5% in value. Very bad for Doc or Docg wines, other traditional fresh cheeses, crescenza, third beef processing, sweet charmat sparkling wine and UHT milk.

4.2) Three regions growing

From the collapse of sales three regions are saved. In order of turnover:

- Sardinia. In seventh place in the national ranking, the Sardinian origin qualifies 604 references with over 207 million euros in turnover and records excellent performance, +4.8% in value and +3.2% in volume, also thanks to UHT milk, DOC/DOCG wines, mozzarella, and fresh milk.

- Molise. Semolina pasta, whole wheat pasta, and tomato purées drive the sales of the 160 products that indicate on the label their origin from this region. Sales grow in value (+6.1%), up to 122 million euros, but especially in volume (+8.4%) contrary to the price hikes

- Aosta Valley. With a basket composed of just 30 products, and a turnover of 11 million euros, the Aosta Valley origin drives sales in value (+8.5%) and volume (+4.2%), thanks to the positive performance of the fourth poultry processing and sliced table cheeses.

5) ‘Free from’, 14,000 food products

Almost 14 thousand products with an annual turnover exceeding 8 billion euros display on the label or packaging a claim referring to the lower presence or the absolute absence of a nutrient, ingredient, or additive. Turnover grew by +3%, while sales volume fell by -0.9%.

No fewer than 12 ‘free from’ claims are accompanied by a growth in sales volume. The trend confirms the tendency to reduce sugars and fats, as well as attention to food safety and environmental sustainability.

The positive performances in terms of sales volume belong to products labeled with the claims:

- low fat, +0.6% (+0.2% in value), thanks to Greek yogurt, UHT milk and its substitutes, traditional biscuits, fresh cheeses, seed oils, mozzarella, and potatoes

- low sugar, +4% (+9.4%) and without added sugars, +4.3% (+8.7%). The best-selling products are chewing gum, milk substitutes, fruit-based drinks, Greek yogurt, jams, preserved fruit, and health biscuits

- additive-free +0.4 (+3.6%), thanks especially to the positive contribution provided by cold cuts, ready first courses, canned meat, extruded snacks, sweeteners, shelled nuts and vegetable spreads

– without glutamate +1.6% (+3.9%) and  without GMOs, +2.6% (5.3%), both positive mainly thanks to consumption trends of ready first courses, canned meat, turkey, and fresh filled pasta

– without antibiotics, +2.6% (+5.2%) with fish specialties, hen eggs, chicken, and cold cuts that increased sales

– without hydrogenated fats, +5.8% (+10.2%), driven by sweet snacks, cookies, flatbreads, and ready-made cakes

– without polyphosphates +1.3% (+3.1%), but with a drop in sales of wieners and cold cuts (diced, sliced, and precooked)

– without/limited use of pesticides, +4.9% (+11.2%), in fourth range vegetables, durum wheat pasta, strawberries, and natural frozen vegetables/fruits

– without/zero residues +15.5% (+17.8%). Driving sales are especially durum wheat pasta, fourth range vegetables, berries, apricots, and natural frozen vegetables/fruits

– without glyphosate, +25.9% (+22.4%), identified on 75 products and supported by sales of durum wheat pasta, whole wheat pasta, and egg pasta

– without aspartame, +3.9% (+5.6%), appearing on 60 products, essentially sweeteners, low-fat yogurt, and orange soda.

6) ‘Rich in’, almost 11,000 products

The basket Of the 10,725 products labeled as rich or enriched with an ingredient or component, it is worth a turnover of over 5 billion euros. Overall, sales in value increased (+3.4%), while volume decreased (-1.3%).

The sales trend in volume shows three claims balanced and two growing:

– proteins. The most relevant of the 'rich in' claims, present on 3,337 products, generates a turnover of almost 1.9 billion euros. The vitality recorded in previous editions of Osservatorio Immagino has disappeared, marking stable volumes (+0.5%) and a turnover increase of +4.5%. The most dynamic categories are Greek yogurt, ready vegetable dishes, grana and similar cheeses, sports nutrition, fermented milk, fresh cheeses, and functional yogurt

– fiber. Among more than 4,000 products accompanied by this claim, rusks, natural frozen vegetables and fruits, whole wheat pasta, ready vegetable dishes, traditional cookies, soft gluten-free breads, UHT milk substitutes, and sandwiches grow. Stable volume sales at +0.5%, value at 5.1%

– calcium. Present on 790 products, this claim is associated with stable volume sales (+0.1%) and growth in value sales (+3.1%). Good fermented milk, other traditional fresh cheeses, chewing gum, UHT milk and infant milk

– lactic ferments. The 537 references in this basket recorded +3.5% volume and +5.6% value growth, exceeding 431 million euros in turnover. Good fermented milk/kefir and whole yogurt

– magnesium. Present on 449 references, the claim generates an advance of +5.8% in value (for a total of over 137 million euros) and +1.5% in volume. Particularly strong performance in sports nutrition, shelled nuts, supplements, breakfast cereals and chamomile.

7) Intolerances and allergies

The 10,813 products  which highlight on the label the absence of an allergen or ingredient that may cause food intolerances are worth 4.7 billion euros. Turnover grew by +1.4% but volumes fell by -1.6%.

Volume sales decrease for products:

– gluten free (-2.1% volume, but +1.3% value) and those certified with the crossed-ear logo of the Italian Celiac Association (-3% volume, +1% value). Bakery products, cereals, snacks, jams, Greek yogurt, gluten-free pasta, soft bread and frozen vegetables perform well. Products more specific to celiacs are growing, while products such as meats or cold cuts, which have a much broader and generic target, are declining, observe the analysts of Osservatorio Immagino;

– milk free (-3.2% volume, +0.3% value).

Sales of the other three claims instead remained stable:

– lactose free, +0.7% volume, +2.1% value. Cold cuts, grana cheeses and similar, whole/table cheeses in pieces, mozzarellas, fermented milk/kefir and supplements were the fastest growing categories. Würstel, fresh milk, UHT milk substitutes and sliced table cheeses were the most penalizing categories,

– yeast free, +0.4% volume, +4.5% value. The growth achieved by third-party pork processing, traditional biscuits and sweet spreadable creams was not enough to offset the contractions of cold cuts, würstel and snacks

– egg-free, +0.4% by volume, +5.6% by value. Among the 144 products accompanied by this claim, the best performances were made by fresh non-stuffed pasta, mayonnaise, healthy biscuits, and fresh gluten-free pasta.

8) The vegan world

The 12,951 products offered with claims referring to a particular lifestyle are worth a turnover of over 4 billion euros, increased by +3.8%, while volume sales slightly declined (-0.9%).

Within the veg world, only one claim is associated with an increase in volume sales:

– veg, present on 4,876 products, increases turnover by +3.9%, for a total of 2.5 billion euros, but volumes remain at -0.3%

– vegetarian, which qualifies 1,991 products, develops a turnover of 1.5 billion euros (+1.9%) but loses -2.5% in volume

– vegan it is the only one of the three claims with growth in volume sales (+1.1%) as well as in value (+5.8%). Present on 3,703 products, it is worth 1.2 billion euros in turnover. The very positive market trends of substitutes for those of animal origin indicate that the vegan claim ‘works’ more in products aimed at specific targets rather than those intended for a wider audience, analysts explain.

9) Organic

Organic increases turnover with the 7,967 products available in supermarkets and hypermarkets (+1.7%, for over 1.2 billion euros), but declines in volume (-1.6%). Fresh milk, fourth range vegetables and natural frozen fruits and vegetables perform poorly.

Good extra virgin olive oil and hen eggs. Products that, in the first part of 2024, have shown growth in sales volumes, favored by the decrease in the inflation rate, reports the report.

10) Halal still growing

Both certifications certifying the suitability of foods to religious dictates are growing:

– kosher. The 1,744 products certified as in line with Jewish religious rules generate a turnover of 975 million euros, +8.4%. Volume sales are essentially stable (-0.3%).

– halal continues to grow. The 558 products compliant with Islamic rules are worth a turnover of 281 million euros, growing by +9.2%, as well as volume sales increased by 2.1%.

11) Beneficial ingredients

Almost 17 products out of 100 highlight the presence of a 'super ingredient' that improves their organoleptic profile, nutritional value or, more simply, makes them tastier and more appealing.

Overall, the sales of the 14,222 items in this basket have exceeded 4.5 billion euros in turnover. The trend is positive in value (+4.5%) but negative in volume (-1.5%).

Among the traditional ingredients only two claims are associated with a positive performance:

– nuts. The claim found on 518 products shows a growth of +6.6% in value and +3.7% in volume, approaching 185 million euros in turnover, thanks to shelled nuts, functional yogurt, basic and fresh ready sauces, loaf bread, fourth-range vegetables and breakfast cereals;

– caramel. Last in terms of business volume (156 million euros and 480 products), this claim is first for growth rates: +20.5% in sales value, but +2.4% also in volume. Led by fresh desserts, tub ice creams, sweet snacks, meal replacements and sports nutrition.

12) Superfruit

With its 3,017 products this significant basket has widely exceeded 915 million euros in turnover, showing a growth of +6.4% in sales value and an increase of +1.2% in volume.

Except almond and blueberry, with volume sales declining by about -1%, the values associated with claims of this group are always positive:

– coconut. Among the brightest in the superfruit basket is the performance of the 446 products accompanied by this claim. In the 12 months ending June 2024, sales increased by +10.9% in value and +6.4% in volume. Very good whole yogurt, Greek yogurt, yogurt substitutes, sweet snacks, sports nutrition and coconut (fruit);

– mango. Mentioned on 268 products, with over 61 million euros in turnover, it marks +14.6% in sales value and +6.2% in volume. Very good energy drinks, yogurt, multipack ice creams, fruit-based drinks, dried fruit, fresh juices and yogurt substitutes;

– cashews. Reported on the labels of 249 products, it is worth a turnover of almost 66 million euros, up +16.8%. In volume, sales increased by +12.6%. Led by shelled nuts, breakfast cereals and multipack ice creams;

– avocado. The evolution of products associated with this superfruit continues unabated. Reported on the label of 67 products which mark +21.9% sales in volume and +25.3% in value, rising to over 43 million euros. Led by exotic fruit, vegetable spreads and soft gluten-free breads.

13) Super cereals

The basket which brings together eight claims belonging to the world of cereals counts 2,150 products and a turnover of 569 million euros, increased by +5.3% in value and slightly moved, +0.9%, in volume, with mixed performance.

The positive sign in volume sales is recorded only for

- oats. With a turnover of 285 million euros, the presence of this ingredient marks an increase in sales of +10.7% in value and +5.7% in volume. The most important growth concerns UHT milk substitutes (oat drink), breakfast cereals, traditional and healthy biscuits, crackers, sweet snacks, cheese and sandwich substitutes;

- rice flour. High appreciation among consumers for products with this ingredient. The 159 products containing it achieved growth of +8.8% in turnover, close to 81 million euros, and increased volumes sold by +2.6%. Very good are flours, wholemeal pasta, cakes and pastries, fresh unleavened pasta, healthy biscuits and baked goods, gluten-free cereals and snacks.

14) Sweet stevia

Between the two sweeteners monitored, one sinks the average:

- brown sugar, reported on 352 products, is collapsing: -6% volume sales and -2.4% value sales (92 million euros). Still on shelves are sugar as is as well as biscuits, snacks and rusks containing it;

- stevia, instead, grows. The appeal increases sales by +1.5% in volume and +4.2% in value. Among the 132 products containing it – turnover of over 43 million euros – tea-based drinks, candies, sports nutrition, drink syrups and other infusions perform well.

15) Seeds. Chia good, hemp very bad

The presence of seeds is highlighted on over 500 products. The basket as a whole is worth a turnover of over 127 million euros, growing by +2.9%. Volume sales, however, decreased by -2.5%. Detailed trend of the various claims:

- flax seeds is associated with substantial stability in volume sales (-0.6%, but +4% in value);

– pumpkin seeds loses -2% turnover and -3.1% in volume. Decline in sweet snacks, breakfast cereals, functional yogurt, and crackers;

– sesame seeds, -7.5% numeric sales, -1% turnover. Decline in sandwiches, fish specialties, breadsticks and other baked goods, cereals, gluten-free snacks;

– chia seeds. Sales growing by +18.5% in value and +1.4% in volume, despite the significant price increase. Definitely strong results for health cookies, chia seeds, breakfast cereals, crispy bread rolls, soft gluten-free breads, rusks and cereals;

– hemp. Heavy declines for foods associated with this claim: -5.9% in value and -12.4% in volume. The worst decline concerns other infusions, crispy bread rolls, UHT juices, seed oil. Only breadsticks, breakfast cereals, and frozen meat recorded sales growth.

16) Spices declining

The three claims related to spices monitored by Osservatorio Immagino appear on 854 products, with a turnover of almost 86 million euros burdened by a sales decline of -4.6% in value and -8.3% in volume, in the last 12 months ending June 2024:

– ginger. The first claim in the basket present on 505 products for a turnover of 59 million euros, falls -4.8% in value and -8% in volume. Decline in other infusions, tea, chocolate bars and low-fat yogurt

– turmeric records the worst performance. The 211 products (value 16 million euros) that indicate its presence lose -9.4% in value and -12.1% in volume. Very bad for other infusions, vegetable ready meals and first ready meals, functional yogurt, whole yogurt and tea

– cinnamon, finally, reported on 190 products, it accounts for a turnover of over 15 million euros, down by -2.9%. There is also a drastic decline in sales volume, -9.1%. Bad for other infusions, tea, fresh desserts, yogurt, supplements and jams.

17) Superfoods

The basket of nine superfoods monitored by Osservatorio Immagino shows overall stable turnover and volumes down by -3.6%. Reported on 788 products these beneficial ingredients are worth 149 million euros.

The best performances regard two claims at the bottom of the revenue ranking

– matcha, the Japanese green tea, counts 36 products and a turnover of 3.5 million euros. Sales are growing in value (+12.2%) and volume (+9.3%), thanks to tea, smoothies and frappés, supplements, ice cream desserts and tea-based drinks

– tahina, with 15 references and a sales value of 2.5 million euros, increases sales by +14.3% in value and +11.1% in volume. Sesame seed sauce is consumed as is or used as a base to prepare hummus at home, which in the packaged version may contain additives, non-extra virgin olive oil, and too much salt, as we have seen. (2)

Among other claims, the volume sales of royal jelly and ginseng remain stable (respectively, +0.3% and +0.6%), while they decrease in all other cases. In particular:

– chili pepper, first in the ranking with 50 million euros in turnover, -4.9% in volume, with revenues quite stable at +0.9

– peanut butter, -10% in volume, -6.9 in value

– edamame, -6.5% in volume, -4.2% in value

– goji, -17.2% in volume, -16.2% in value

– spirulina, -7.4% in volume, -5.5% in value.

18) Processing methods, the EVOO case

The processing method of food appears on the labels of 3,957 products. The basket is worth 1.5 billion euros in sales and has gained +11.5% in value, against a substantial stability in volumes (-0.4%).

The price increases on extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) are well represented by the trend captured by Osservatorio Immagino:

– 'cold extracted/pressed', a claim specific to this product, marks a record revenue increase of +39.5%, reaching over 456 million euros, thus gaining first place in the ranking for turnover. Numeric sales instead lose -2.2%

– 'drawn', instead grows both in value (+5.8%) and volume (+3.5%). The good performance of durum wheat pasta, whole wheat pasta, egg pasta, and fresh gluten-free pasta stands out. Fresh pasta, stuffed or not, is going against the trend

– 'handmade', third claim with a turnover of over 150 million euros developed from only 308 references, it achieved good success in the 12 months detected: sales grew double digits in both value and volume (respectively +11.3% and +10.6%). Good tuna in oil, other fish preserves, natural tuna, cold cuts and ice cream in tubs

– 'unfiltered', claim present on 187 products, marks an annual decline of -3.9% in volume sold but an increase of +10% in sales value, achieving almost 144 million euros. The main reducers in volume sales were alcoholic beers and extra virgin olive oil

– ‘drying’  appears on 375 products generating 128 million in turnover. The trend is positive for sales value (+6.5%) but even more so for volume (+8.2%), thanks to intense promotional activity especially on semolina pasta, whole wheat pasta and egg pasta

– ‘slow/natural leavening’ instead shows all negative indicators. -7.9% volume sales and -2.7% value sales, equal to almost 124 million euros. Poor performance by frozen pizza category and snacks

– ‘not fried’ marks stagnation in numerical sales but increases by +5.4% in value sales, over 112 million euros. Poor performance of extruded products and snacks, good for crunchy bread and rice cakes

– ‘artisan’ loses sales both in value (-3.8%) and volume (-6.3%). The 734 products bearing this label are worth just over 104 million euros. Poor alcoholic beers, cold cuts, other fish preserves, brown liquors, grissini and fresh desserts. Growing, however, chips, fresh filled pasta, panettone, tuna in oil, cakes and pastries

– 'smoking', last claim of the basket, concerns only 88 references and is worth 55 million euros. The poor performance of fish specialties causes a decline in sales both in value (-16.9%) and in volume (-15.5%).

19) Food texture

The sales trend of products accompanied by a claim related to the consistency of the food still often seems subject to the diktat of high prices.

Seven of the 12 claims of this basket sell less in quantitative terms, but not in value:

– 'crunchy', -4.3%. +1.9% in value. Frozen foods (breaded prepared fish, pizza and savory specialties), multipack ice creams and breakfast cereals perform poorly

– 'soft', -1.2% in volume, +2.5% in value. Good performance for loaf bread, sandwich bread, ground coffee, fresh unfilled pasta and sliced table cheeses

– 'tender' loses -4.7% in volume, while maintaining a +1.6% in value. Chocolate bars and potatoes grow, while biscuits (traditional, wholemeal and health), nougat and small breads decline

– 'filled', -0.7% in volume, +5.7% in value. Fresh filled pasta, candies, sweet snacks and chewing gum are growing

– 'stuffed' holds the record for the largest decrease in quantitative sales: -6.2%, while value remains stable at +0.3%. Poor performance for sweet and savory snacks, pastries, frozen pizza and frozen pastry/desserts

– 'soft' loses -3.8% in volume and keeps turnover substantially stable (-0.5%). Poor performance for frozen pizza, cold cuts, snack cakes, other traditional fresh cheeses

– 'velvety', -3.8% in volume and -0.4% in value. Negative trend for coffee (ground and instant), ready first courses and fresh unfilled pasta.

They grow instead on both volume and value sides:

– 'creamy', +3.4% in volume, +7.1% in value. Whole yogurt, fresh cheeses, sweet spreads and tomato sauces experienced the greatest growth

– 'thin', +5.5% in volume, +6.1% in value. Good for fresh filled pasta, cold cuts, flatbreads and crackers

– 'rough', +9.9% in volume, +10.3% in value. The best performing categories were semolina pasta, fresh filled pasta, whole grain/spelt/kamut/legume-based pasta and fresh gluten-free pasta

– 'fragrant', +1.3% in volume, +8.6% in value. Positive trend for crackers, fresh bread substitutes, frozen pastry/desserts and bases.

Marta Strinati

Notes

(1) Immagino Observatory, sixteenth edition 2024 • 2 https://servizi.gs1it.org/osservatori/osservatorio-immagino-16/

(2) Marta Strinati. Chickpea hummus, 8 products compared. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade). 9.8.22