Food consumption in Italy in 2022 will show attention to inflation, health and short supply chains, possibly organic, according to Coop Italia surveys. (1)
Food consumption in Italy, 2022. Hope and fear
Hope and fear is the oxymoron emerging from the two surveys conducted by theCoop Italia Research Office in December 2021. The words associated with the next 12 months are the same as 2021, but ‘hope’ (32% of surveyed consumers) and ‘recovery’ (16%) are associated with a ‘change’ (15%) where ‘fear’ doubles, from 3 to 7% in one year.
Inflation is the primary concern. Price increases in household consumption, along with the labor market, are the sour note in an optimistic outlook on the general economic trend and the Covid situation.
Hostage to inflation
Among the managers interviewed, 6 out of 10 expect consumption to follow GDP at a distance, due to an inflation estimated at +2.9%. According to 63% of experts, the burden will continue throughout 2022.
In this scenario, 1 family out of 2 plans to keep spending at pre-pandemic levels (49%). But while 22% of the sample trusts in recovery, almost one Italian out of 3 (29%) fears they will not be able to recover.
Sacrifices will penalize first and foremost technological products, evenings with friends, travel and holidays.
Food prices, increases over 3.5%
Food prices, according to the managers of the supply chain, will record an average increase of over 3.5%.
Consumers will seek refuge in promotions, stores and the most convenient channels (the discount, first of all), in addition to reducing waste. For many Italians – especially in the South and economically disadvantaged groups – the cost of living will also penalize food consumption, with a new and more significant divergence in consumption compared to wealthier classes.
Organic, local and a private label
Consumers once again reward local food (100% Italian and local) and strengthen the trend towards organic and healthy eating, already emerged in the preview of the Coop Report 2021.
2022 will be above all the year of the private label. The private label, according to 61% of managers of the supply chain, will be winning for the quality-price ratio.
The GDO on the test bench
In 2020, the outbreak of the pandemic had caused GDO sales to soar (+4.8% compared to 2019). 2021 ended with the same sales levels, with a slight reduction (0.5%) only in retail physical (ecommerce. excluded). Also thanks to good Christmas sales performance, +3% in the last two weeks of the year.
2022 will be the test bench. The key elements – according to interviewed experts – are prices, channel digitization and new purchasing behaviors (for products and formats). With increasing attention to ethical, social and environmental sustainability themes.
Inflation and the epidemic complicate the forecasts for 2022. The Coop Research Office – supported by Nielsen – nevertheless estimates a slight increase in total GDO sales, just below 1.5% in value, as a joint effect of a probable volume reduction, a widespread price increase and the recomposition of consumption choices.
Notes
(1) The 2022 forecasts are the result of two surveys conducted in December 2021 by the Coop Research Office and its partners. The first, in collaboration with Coop-Nomisma, “2022 Coming Soon – Consumer”, conducted with the CAWI method in December, involved a sample of 1000 individuals representative of the 18-65 year-old population. The second “2022 Coming Soon – Manager”, addressed to community of the italians.coop website, 800 opinion leader e market maker users of past editions of the Report. Among these, 440 subjects with a managerial profile were selected/executive (entrepreneurs, CEOs and directors, freelancers) able to anticipate future trends of the country more than others
