Italian coffee export 2025: price records and global challenges

Italian roasting: key players and sector structure

The Italian roasting industry counts about  a thousand companies distributed throughout the national territory, with an estimated direct employment of over  7,000 employees (Coffitalia, 2025). The productive fabric includes over 300 artisanal roasters alongside large industrial groups, demonstrating the variety and richness of the Italian landscape.

The main industrial groups in the sector –  Lavazza, Illy, Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group and Segafredo Zanetti – represent about 65% of the domestic market and lead the international expansion of Made in Italy coffee:

• Lavazza, in particular, operates in over 140 countries through 9 production plants distributed in 6 countries, with 70% of turnover generated abroad (World Coffee Portal, 2025);

• Illy Caffè, founded in 1933 in Trieste, closed 2024 with a turnover of 630 million euros, up 6% compared to the previous year, confirming its leadership in the premium segment (Il Sole 24 Ore, 2025).

Italian coffee: production and export

In  2024, the Italian industry produced about  431,000 tons of roasted coffee, with a production value of  4.73 billion euros and a significant value growth (+8.5%), confirming the sector's ability to maintain competitiveness even in the presence of strong pressure on raw material costs (Unione Italiana Food, 2025).

In  2024, Italy exported  313,872 tons of green coffee equivalent (about  290 million kg of roasted coffee), registering an increase of 1.8% compared to 2023. In value, exports reached  2.665 billion euros (Unione Italiana Food, 2025).

Italy confirms itself as:

• the third country in the world for green coffee imports (after the USA and Germany);

• second in the European Union for roasted coffee exports (after Germany);

• first European producer of roasted coffee, with 25% of total EU production (ANSA, 2025);

• major world exporter of roasted coffee to non-EU countries, with a 32.9% share of the total European exports (Area Studi Mediobanca, 2023).

Coffee represents the  fourth most exported agri-food product from Italy by value, after wine, pasta, and olive oil (SIGEP, 2025).

Main destination markets

Italian coffee exports are primarily destined for European markets, which absorb about  60% of the total. Outside the EU, the most relevant markets include:

• United States: a rapidly growing strategic market, with significant investments by major Italian groups. In 2024, Lavazza announced its intention to produce 100% of the products destined for the US market directly on American territory, in response to the tariff policies of the Trump administration. Illy is also considering local production investments to consolidate its presence in the US market, where demand for quality espresso coffee continues to grow;

• Germany: main destination market in Europe, which continues to absorb a significant share of Italian exports, confirming the traditional trade partnership between the two countries;

• France: second most important European market, with a consolidated demand for high-quality Italian blends;

• other relevant markets: United Kingdom, Poland, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Australia, Russia and Canada represent strategic destinations for Italian exports.

In the last decade, exports have nearly doubled their volumes, from 160.7 thousand tons in 2011 to 314 thousand tons in 2024, confirming themselves as the true growth engine of the Italian coffee industry.

Global competitive positioning

At a global level, Italy maintains a leadership position in the high-quality roasted coffee segment. Among the main European exporters of processed coffee, Italy is strategically positioned after Switzerland and Germany in the total value of global exports but is the undisputed leader for roasted coffee destined for extra-European markets.

The Italian coffee sector shows a strong international vocation: the 49 largest Italian players export  55,5%of sales, a percentage significantly higher than the average of the Italian food sector (27.5%) (Area Studi Mediobanca, 2023). The larger companies reach export shares of up to  69,1% of the total turnover.

Market challenges

The global coffee market in 2025 faces significant and unprecedented challenges, as outlined below.

Record green coffee prices

Green coffee prices experienced an exceptional year in 2025, with unprecedented fluctuations reaching historic levels not seen since the late 1970s. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), price trends during the year showed extraordinary volatility:

First quarter 2025 – Historic records:

• In  January 2025, the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) reached an average of  310.12 cents USD/lb, registering an increase of 3.5% compared to December 2024 (ICO, 2025);

• In  February 2025, the I-CIP has surpassed every historical record, reaching an average of  354.32 cents USD/lb(+14.3% compared to January), the highest level ever recorded, surpassing the previous high of 305.13 cents USD/lb in March 1977 (ICO, 2025);

• The price ofArabica Colombiana has reached  410.64 cents USD/lb in February 2025 (+16.7% compared to January), while the  Robusta has reached  263.08 cents USD/lb (+7.2%) (ICO, 2025);

Evolution during the year:

• In  November 2025, the I-CIP remained in a range between 320.39 and 343.92 cents USD/lb, with an average of  330.44 cents USD/lb (+1.2% compared to October). Two key factors influenced the market: the removal of US tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports (downward factor) and severe flooding in Vietnam's producing regions (upward factor), which largely balanced each other out (ICO, 2025);

• In  December 2025, the I-CIP recorded a sharp decline, settling at  304.68 cents USD/lb (-7.8% compared to November). The price dropped sharply from mid-November, falling from 343.92 cents USD/lb on November 11 to a low of 283.21 cents USD/lb on December 19, then partially recovering to 293.09 cents USD/lb by year-end (ICO, 2025);

Dynamics by variety (December 2025):

• Arabica Colombiana: 382.32 cents USD/lb (-6.5%)

• Other Milds (Arabica): 381.14 cents USD/lb (-7.1%)

• Brazilian Naturals (Arabica): 355.38 cents USD/lb (-6.5%)

• Robusta: 190.53 cents USD/lb (-11.3%, falling below the 2 USD/lb threshold for the first time since August)

Early days of 2026: At the beginning of January 2026, the market showed a recovery, with the I-CIP returning above 300 cents USD/lb for three consecutive days, reaching a peak of  307.11 cents USD/lb on January 7 (Comunicaffè, 2026).

Factors underlying the volatility:

The ICO report of December 2025 attributes the sharp price drop at year-end to a combination of factors:

1. On the political front: the further one-year delay of the EUDR (European Union Deforestation Regulation) (Dongo, 2025) and the removal of reciprocal US tariffs on coffee, including the specific one on Brazil, have reduced the uncertainty that weighed on the market;

2. On the production front: the upward revision of official estimates for the 2025/26 Brazilian harvest, combined with a slight positive adjustment to USDA global production forecasts, has strengthened expectations of supply improvement;

3. On the financial front: the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar has encouraged sales by Brazilian producers. The net long positions of non-commercial traders on ICE Arabica decreased from 34,747 to 23,673 lots in the 14 days before December 23;

4. Year-end recovery: the partial price recovery at the end of December was triggered by two developments: lower rainfall in Brazil and widespread flooding in Indonesia, which could reduce the country's exports by up to 15% in the 2025/26 coffee year (ICO, 2025; Comunicaffè, 2026).

Andrea Illy, president of Illy Caffè, stated that 'the cost of raw materials has tripled compared to the historical average. This is an effect of financial speculation impacting farmers and consumers' (Il Sole 24 Ore, 2025).

Climate change and production crisis

The Brazil, the world's largest producer, faced in 2024 the worst drought in seven decades, with temperatures exceeding 35°C causing premature coffee flower drop and shortening the average lifespan of the plants (ICO, 2024; Linkiesta, 2025). A 6% decline in total Brazilian production is forecast for 2025-2026.

The Vietnam, the main Robusta producer, recorded a 39.5% collapse in exports in December 2024, reaching the lowest level since December 2014. Severe flooding struck the producing regions, exerting upward pressure on global prices (ICO, 2025).

Operating costs and logistical challenges

I high energy costs and the inflationary pressures continue to weigh on roasting companies' operating margins. Added to these are the tariff policies of the U.S. administration, which imposed 25% tariffs on coffee from Colombia and threatened tariffs up to 50% on Brazilian imports, creating uncertainty for industry operators (Quifinanza, 2025).

Giuseppe Lavazza, president of the Italian Coffee Committee, described the situation as a ‘perfect storm’ in which the combination of climate crisis, financial speculation, logistical blockages, and new European regulations (such as the EUDR, European Union Deforestation Regulation) risk compromising the competitiveness of Italian companies (Quifinanza, 2025).

Future perspectives

Despite the unprecedented challenges related to the record prices of green coffee and the uncertainties of the geopolitical context, the Italian export sector maintains sustained growth prospects, supported by the global reputation of Italian espresso coffee and the innovation capacity of the national industry.

The global coffee market, today valued at 138.37 billion dollars, is expected to reach 174.25 billion by 2030, with a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 4,72%. The distinctive competitive factors that will continue to support the growth of Italian exports include:

• reputation of the Italian coffee brand: the culture of Italian espresso remains a global icon, with consumers willing to pay a ‘premium price’ for the quality and authenticity of Italian blends;

• innovation in formats: the growth of the single-portion segment (pods, compatible capsules) and ready-to-drink products offers expansion opportunities in international markets;

• demand for premium coffee: in emerging as well as established markets, the demand for specialty and high-quality coffee continues to grow, favoring Italian producers positioned in the premium segment;

• know-how in roasting and blending: the Italian art of blending, which combines coffees from different geographical origins to create complex and balanced aromatic profiles, represents a competitive advantage that is difficult to replicate;

• sustainability and traceability: the growing focus on environmental and social sustainability is driving Italian groups to invest in regenerative agriculture, quality certifications, and supply chain traceability, elements increasingly appreciated by global consumers.

Lavazza and Illy are also strategically investing in projects of  productive localization in key markets (especially the USA) to overcome tariff barriers and respond more quickly to local demand, confirming the ability of the Italian sector to adapt to the evolutions of the global competitive context.

Photo by René Porter on Unsplash

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