Italian olive oil: production, export and challenges

Production scenarios: Italy's recovery in the global context

The  world production of olive oil in the 2025/2026 campaign is expected to decline by 4% compared to the previous year, settling at 3,430,000 tonnes, but still 12% higher than the five-year average (European Commission, 2026). This repositioning at average levels follows the two record years of 2021/2022 and 2024/2025.

The  EU production is expected to remain stable around 2,046,000 tonnes (-3% compared to 2024/2025), with a 10% increase compared to the five-year average (European Commission, 2026). The Spain confirms itself as the undisputed leader with 1,372,000 tons, while theItaly recovers ground with an estimated production of 310,000 tons (+25% compared to 2024), driven by the excellent performances of Puglia, Calabria and Sicily (Ismea, 2025).

However, the  Italian production in 2024 – fixed at 248,000 tons – relegated the country to  fifth place worldwide after Spain, Turkey, Tunisia and Greece, highlighting a worrying loss of competitiveness (Ismea, 2025). Non-EU countries instead show a 5% contraction, although remaining 16% above the historical average (European Commission, 2026).

Hub Italy: primacy in the ‘master blend’ and projection on foreign markets

In 2024, Italy exported about  344,000 tons of olive oil for a value of 3.09 billion euros (+42.6% compared to the previous year), consolidating the role of second largest world exporter after Spain, with a 20% share of the global market (Ismea, 2025; ANSA, 2025). This volume exceeds by  38,7% the entire national production.

This phenomenon confirms that the Italian olive oil industry operates as a global hub of excellence, where leadership is not based on the origin of raw materials but on mastery in selection and blending. The  United States absorb about one third of the total value, followed by Germany and France.

In the first quarter of 2025 the  exports grew by 19% in volume – due to the greater availability of raw material compared to the previous campaign – while the value decreased by 10% (Ismea, 2025). The free trade agreement with India – which provides for the progressive elimination of the current 45% tariff – represents a potential element of strategic development.

Italy remains  a net importer to satisfy both internal consumption and flows abroad. In the first four months of 2025 imports exceeded 250,000 tons (+66% compared to 2024), with spending down by 13%, significantly reducing the trade deficit (-84.3%) (Ismea, 2025).

Oil geopolitics: the Mediterranean axis and Tunisia's role

One of the most significant elements emerging from the analysis of trade flows 2025/2026 concerns the  extraordinary increase in imports from the extra-EU Mediterranean area. The  EU imports from third countries increased by 27.8% in the 2025/2026 campaign compared to the previous year, reaching 24,059 tonnes between October 2025 and November 2025 (European Commission, 2026).

In particular, the  imports from Tunisia have registered an exceptional surge: +79,2% compared to 2024/2025, with 18,374 tonnes imported in the October-November 2025 period (European Commission, 2026). This data is even more significant considering that the quota at  zero duty for the import of virgin oil from Tunisia was  completely saturated for the ninth consecutive year (European Commission, 2026).

In 2025, Tunisian zero-duty imports reached  44,691 tonnes, compared to the maximum limit of 56,700 tonnes provided by the European Union (European Commission, 2026). Tunisia now represents  76% of extra-EU imports in the October-November 2025 period, followed at a great distance by Argentina (1,050 t, 4%), Morocco (1,038 t, 4%), and Turkey (255 t, 1%) (European Commission, 2026).

PDO Economy: certifying quality to protect value

The Ismea-Qualivita report 2025 on the DOP Economy highlights the exceptional – albeit marginal – performances in 2024 of the  Italian oils with Geographical Indication, driven by the denominations Terra di Bari DOP and Sicilia IGP:

• production 16,190 tons,  +31,1% compared to 2023;

• production value 194 million euros,  +46,9%;

• consumption value 258 million euros, +47.8%;

• value to theexport 102 million euros, +25.3% (Ismea & Fondazione Qualivita, 2025).

The  50 denominations of extra virgin oil (42 DOP and 8 IGP) however represent only 6.53% of 100% Made in Italy EVOO production, suggesting significant margins for greater adherence to Protection Consortia by operators.

Cost analysis: understanding the structural gap with Spain

International price lists of EVOO – determined by Spain, which in the 2024/2025 season produced over 50% of the world's olive oil with 1,380,000 tons – recorded a marked reduction in 2025 (European Commission, 2026).

The competitive gap between Spain and Italy is dramatic: production prices in  Spain in the first ten months of 2025 stood at  4.39 euros/kg, while in  Italy reached  6.82 euros/kg, with a differential of  +55,3% (Ismea, 2025). This structural gap seriously penalizes Italian competitiveness both on international markets and compared to the national processing industry.

For virgin oil, the average Italian prices (6.00 euros/kg) are 52.1% higher than Spanish ones (3.94 euros/kg), while for lampante oil the gap reaches 47.3% (3.06 euros/kg in Italy versus 2.08 euros/kg in Spain) (European Commission, 2026).

The  stocks in Italy as of November 30, 2025 amount to 202,920 tons (+27.7% over 2024), of which 75.4% is extra virgin. 100% Italian oil represents 49.9% of total extra virgin, with a significant increase in organic oil (30,022 tons, +43.4%) (Informatore Agrario, 2026). EU final stocks expected for the 2025/2026 season are at average levels (411,000 tons), in line with the five-year average (European Commission, 2026).

Challenging the Iberian model: from fragmentation to efficiency

The Italian olive oil supply chain includes  620,000 farms on over  1.1 million hectares of olive groves (of which 24% organic) and  4,240 active mills (Ismea, 2025; ANSA, 2025). This extraordinary  fragmentation represents the Achilles' heel of the national production system.

The comparison with  Spain is ruthless. According to the 2020 Agricultural Census, Spain has 511,762 farms with a main focus on woody crops (olive groves, vineyards, orchards, and others), accounting for 55.9% of the total national farms, distributed over  2.46 million hectares of olive groves – more than double the Italian surface – served by about  1,847 mills (almazaras) in the 2024/2025 campaign – less than half of the Italian ones (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, 2022; Parras Rosa, 2023).

The result of this different organization is evident in volumes: Spain produced in the 2024/2025 campaign  1,380,000 tons of olive oil – over 5.5 times the Italian production (European Commission, 2026). This means that:

• each hectare of Spanish olive grove produces on average 561 kg of oil (1,380,000 t / 2.46 million ha), compared to 225 kg/hectare in Italy in the 2024 campaign (248,000 t / 1.1 million ha);

• each mill Iberian mills process on average 747 tons per campaign (1,380,000 t / 1,847 mills), compared to 58 tons per Italian mill (248,000 t / 4,240 mills);

• The  average area per farm of woody crops in Spain is 4.8 hectares (considering all 511,762 farms with woody crops), significantly higher than the Italian average of 1.8 hectares per olive farm.

This  dimensional inefficiency of the Italian olive oil supply chain translates into:

• fragmentation of the production chain: the bottling industry and packagers face issues related to dispersive and inefficient logistics, complex quality chain management, and increased costs for analyses and contracting, made cumbersome by the high number of stakeholders;

• low bargaining power: the bottlers – but not the producers and millers, for the reasons mentioned above – are the only direct interlocutors with the GDA, food service and importers;

• lower investment capacity in research and technological innovation, as well as in resilient and efficient agronomic practices;

• structurally higher production costs, for the reasons mentioned above, to which inefficiencies in many suitable territories are added, partly reflected in the +55% price gap compared to Spain.

The Ministry of Agriculture supports the supply chain with measures including € 34.6 million annually from the oil sector intervention (CAP Strategic Plan 2023-2027), € 100 million from the PNRR for mills and € 30 million against Xylella (Ismea, 2025). These  blanket aids however risk being palliative cures if land consolidations and efficient synergies are not encouraged. Without larger and cohesive companies, mechanization remains a mirage for the individual small producer.

The structural gap: Italy vs Spain

Landscape vs economic sustainability

The landscape Tuscan remains a unique case from an aesthetic and identity point of view. However, the economic sustainability of traditional olive-growing companies is increasingly fragile, and in the absence of generational renewal, many olive groves are abandoned.

Without a process of selective modernization (mechanization compatible with the territories, rationalization of plants, aggregation of supply, access to adequate labor), the real risk is that Italian extra virgin olive oil and Made in Italy will continue to lose market share to more structured competitors.

The challenge is not to choose between landscape and competitiveness, but to find technical and organizational models which allow us to preserve historic olive groves in the most pleasant landscapes and at the same time develop sustainable production systems to guarantee profitability, employment and the economic future of the territories of origin. Even from this point of view, two distinct models contrast today:

Traditional and landscape planting density

In the Tuscan hilly contexts or for those who favor manual pruning and harvesting management, the distances between plants are wide:

• standard distance: recommended spacings from 6 × 6 m (about 277 plants/ha) up to 7 × 7 m;

• facilitated management: for easier harvesting and sustainable canopy development, some technicians suggest up to 7.5 m between plants and 8.5 m between rows;

• minimum recommended: even in denser plantations it is advisable not to go below 5 × 5 m, to limit root competition and water-nutritional stress.

In many historic olive groves work is still done on monumental trees, with heights that can exceed 10–15 meters: harvesting is complex, risky for operators, and economically inefficient. Given the modest yields, harvesting costs are very high, making these systems increasingly unsustainable in the medium to long term.

Intensive and super-intensive olive groves

In the models adopted on a large scale in Spain, the goal is systematic mechanization and rapid entry into production:

• intensive (monocono): typical spacing 6 × 5 m (about 333 plants/ha) or 6 × 3 m (about 555 plants/ha);

• superintensive: with low vigor varieties it reaches up to 1,500–1,600 plants/ha (e.g. 4 × 2 m), with plants trained as hedges, 2–3 meters high.

In these systems, a single mechanical means with operator is able to carry out the harvest in a few hours, conveying the olives directly onto the vehicle via conveyor belts and quickly delivering them to highly automated industrial mills. The result is a drastic reduction of costs per unit production and greater competitiveness in international markets. In this direction, only the Consortium ofOlio Terra d’Otranto PDO, in Salento (Apulia).

Beyond tradition: AgTech and 4.0 to save the productive landscape

To bridge the competitive gap of +55,3% in production costs without distorting the landscape heritage of traditional planting layouts, technology today offers solutions of ‘precision farming‘ capable of reducing variable costs and stabilizing yields. The integration of digital systems allows transforming the historic olive grove into an efficient production unit through four technological pillars:

• precision water and nutrient management: the use of IoT probes in the soil and local weather stations allows the implementation of variable rate irrigation (Variable Rate Irrigation). This approach reduces water waste by 25-30% and counters the production alternation typical of Italian cultivars, ensuring a consistent size of olives;

• phytosanitary monitoring via drones: the use of multispectral cameras to calculate vigor indices (NDVI) makes it possible to early detect outbreaks of Xylella or olive fly attacks. Timely intervention with targeted treatments (spot spraying) can reduce the use of pesticides up to 40%, reducing costs and improving the ecological profile of the product;

• robotics and facilitated mechanization: on steep or hilly terrain, light automation (autonomous mowers and high-performance electric shakers) reduces dependence on specialized labor, which is the most burdensome cost item for Italian olive growing (up to 20% estimated savings on soil management and harvesting

• blockchain traceability: The digitization of '100% Italian' with total transparency on olive groves and milling, acidity and polyphenols, immutably recorded, allows justifying the premium price required by national production costs, shifting competition from commodity level to distinctive value level (Dongo, 2022).

The adoption of these technologies does not necessarily require a radical transformation of planting patterns, but imposes a change of management model: the shift from owning machines to accessing services of technology outsourcing, essential to enable the 620,000 Italian micro-enterprises to remain competitive in the global market.

Towards 2030: structural reforms for resilient olive growing

The total turnover of the Italian supply chain in 2024 reached 5.8 billion euros, confirming the strategic weight of the sector in the national food industry (Ismea, 2025). But this value is largely generated by the processing industry and exports, not by the primary agricultural phase which suffers from increasingly compressed margins.

The future of the Italian green gold lies in the ability to combine industrial capacity with a more efficient and cohesive agricultural phase. Business aggregation, innovation in agriculture and enhancement of PDO/PGI are strategic necessities to ensure that the excellence of Made in Italy continues to lead the world market, while protecting the economy of the territories of origin.

Dario Dongo

Credit cover: Musarra organic farm (Belpasso, province of Catania, Sicily) 

References

• ANSA. (2025, August 4).  Ismea, olive oil exports rise and value marks +42%. https://www.ansa.it/canale_terraegusto/notizie/agrimercati/2025/08/04/ismea-sale-lexport-dellolio-di-oliva-e-il-valore-segna-42_f6368987-01cf-45d8-866a-5bf99638abef.html

• European Commission. (2026, January 29).  Market situation in the olive oil and table olives sectors – Market Observatory [Presentation]. Expert Group EU Olive Oil and Table Olives Market Observatory.

• Dongo, D. (2022, 3 February). Agri-food blockchain, from Walmart to the FDA in the USA, Wiise Chain in Italy. Towards Web 3. FT (Food Times). https://www.foodtimes.eu/it/pianeta/blockchain-agroalimentare-da-walmart-alla-fda-in-usa-wiise-chain-in-italia-verso-il-web-3/

• Informatore Agrario. (2026, 15 January).  Olive oil stocks increasing in 2025. Price uncertainty remains. https://www.informatoreagrario.it/filiere-produttive/frutticoltura/olio-oliva-giacenze-2025/

• Ismea. (2025, 1 August).  Italian olive oil, ISMEA publishes the Sector Sheet and Trends Report: growing export and increasing value, while the supply chain looks to a recovery also in volumes. https://www.ismea.it/flex/cm/pages/ServeBLOB.php/L/IT/IDPagina/13382

• Ismea. (2025, July).  Olive Oil Trends No.1/2025 – July 2025. https://www.ismeamercati.it/flex/cm/pages/ServeBLOB.php/L/IT/IDPagina/13559

• Ismea & Qualivita Foundation. (2025).  ISMEA-Qualivita 2025 Report on Italian agri-food and wine productions PDO, PGI and STG (23rd ed.). Qualivita Editions.  https://www.ismea.it/flex/cm/pages/ServeAttachment.php/L/IT/D/1%252Fe%252F8%252FD.fefdd2e7c08546544955/P/BLOB%3AID%3D13512/E/pdf?mode=download

• Instituto Nacional de Estadística. (2022, 4 May). Agricultural Census. Year 2020 [Press release]. https://www.ine.es/prensa/cea_2020.pdf

• Istat. (2025).  The trend of the agricultural economy – Year 2024. https://www.istat.it/comunicato-stampa/landamento-delleconomia-agricola-anno-2024/

• Parras Rosa, M. (Dir.). (2023). Informe Anual de Coyuntura del Sector Oleícola 2023. Chair Caja Rural de Jaén José Luis García Lomas Hernández of Economy, Marketing and Olive Oil Cooperativism, University of Jaén. Cited in Revista Almaceite. https://revistaalmaceite.com/2024/02/15/el-89-de-las-envasadoras-de-aceite-de-oliva-espanola-estan-ligadas-a-una-almazara/

• Revista Almaceite. (2025, 17 February). Seven provinces have produced more than 90% of the olive oil this campaign with only 54% of the oil mills. https://revistaalmaceite.com/2025/02/17/seven-provinces-have-produced-more-than-90-percent-of-the-olive-oil-this-campaign-with-only-54-percent-of-the-oil-mills/