The grain crisis exacerbated by the Ukraine-Russia war threatens food security, that is, the safety of food supplies. A group of researchers analyzes its evolution and proposes some essential interventions, on nature food, to mitigate the risk of a global crisis that could last for many years. (1)
Wheat crisis e food security
The introduction is the mix of the effects generated by the Ukrainian conflict on the supply of grain (consumed by 2,5 billion people), fertilizers and energy sources. The blockade of exports, sanctions and speculation have inflamed prices.
'In March 2022, the food price index has reached a record high since its introduction in 1990, rising by 12,6%, driven by prices for cereals and vegetable oil: the price of wheat alone increased by 19,7% in March', the researchers recall.
Wheat, the role of Russia and Ukraine
The weight of Russia and Ukraine in grain supplies is explained by the numbers. From those soils in 2020 came 28% of world grain exports. Their shortage (and expensive prices) undermines food security in low- and low-income countries in North Africa, the Middle East, the Mediterranean, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
The crisis di food security (exacerbated by the wheat emergency) is particularly serious, as illustrated in the iPES FOOD report (2022) on the malfunctions of the global food market:
- in Egypt, where over half of the 21 million tonnes of wheat consumed each year comes from abroad. In 2021, 50% ofimport came from Russia and 30% from Ukraine.
- in Yemen, Sudan and Bangladesh. (2)
The essential interventions
The current scenario, according to the authors of the document, requires some essential interventions:
1) Mitigate the crisis of food security short term
To meet the demand, it is appropriate to increase production with dedicated economic incentives (eg. input, machinery, etc.) and at the same time extend the crops in suitable areas (Canada, USA, Europe). But also:
- incentivize farmers to grow wheat by setting guaranteed minimum prices (fair, ed.),
- preserve stocks, if necessary, reserving their use for food use only,
- experimenting with flour blends, adding nutrient-rich and / or resilient crops such as vegetable, cassava, sorghum and millet.
Ensure access to wheat at a global level, on the other hand, it requires supranational policies (at the UN level) aimed at discouraging speculation, through taxes and controls aimed at preventing exports at the first signs of crisis.
2) Stabilize the grain supply
The interventions to play in the medium term also start from an increase in production. Many countries have untapped potential. The researchers cite the case of the East African highlands and southern Africa. However, decisions depend on national priorities. Sometimes 'heterodirect'.
In this direction goes the policy of the government of Ethiopia, which aims at the self-sufficiency of wheat through the expansion of crops in the less populated plains and in the central areas of the country. In addition to good intentions, the researchers warn, the path to self-sufficiency requires reforms in agricultural policy and the provision of basic services such as credit, logistics, education and communications.
'In many contexts, the basic systems needed to build grain self-sufficiency are underdeveloped'.
Adequate support technical can contribute to the productivity increase of existing crops. Change is generated even with modest investments, such as row sowing, the targeted use of fertilizers (and biostimulants, ed), better pest control, integration with legume crops, etc. Up to the most advanced satellite observation systems for crops.
3) Improve the resilience of the agri-food system
The essential interventions indicated in the short and medium term are in any case insufficient to guarantee the stability of food safety. The way forward in the long term is the transition to the resilience of the agri-food system.
A focal point is the protection of soils. The invoked expansion of production, the researchers warn, must not demean the areas of the planet vital in the conservation of biodiversity, carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services. See the case of Brazil, which consumes uncontrolled forest foragribusiness. (3)
'A transition to resilience of the agri-food system will require balancing food supply needs with the imperatives of mitigation and adaptation to climate change, gender equity (women are the first victims of food crises, ed), nutritional sufficiency and security of livelihoods', the researchers conclude.
Cover image taken from the study in note 1.
Footnotes
(1) Bentley, AR, Donovan, J., Sonder, K. et al. Near- to long-term measures to stabilize global wheat supplies and food security. NatFood 3, 483–486 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00559-y
(2) Marta Strinati. Rising prices and food crisis in times of war. Background in the iPES FOOD report. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade), 10.5.22
(3) Dario Dongo, Isis Consuelo Sanlucar Chirinos. Land grabbing and deforestation in Brazil, barbarism continues. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade), 20.5.22
A professional journalist since January 1995, she has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and periodicals (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). She is the author of journalistic studies on food and has published the book "Reading labels to know what we eat".
