The sixteenth edition of the Osservatorio Immagino – offered by GS1 Italy based on NielsenIQ data, with detailed analysis of consumption trends on over 138.000 products on the shelves of supermarkets and hypermarkets – shows a slight attenuation of the inflationary wave and the slow recovery of food consumption in Italy, in the second half of the 12 months ended in June 2024.
The contraction in numerical sales is reduced or returns to acceptable levels in relation to turnover, compared to the dramatic data of the previous report.
The high prices are significant on extra virgin olive oil. The Italianness of food and drinks derails, while attention to health (less sugar and fat) and risks related to pesticide residues re-emerge. However, without yet distinguishing the difference between products presented with claims such as 'without residues' or 'without glyphosate' and those that instead derive from organic farming.
1) Metaproduct I guess, the nutritional profiles
The metaproduct is a summary statistical indicator created by the Osservatorio Immagino. It is presented as an average nutritional label of food consumption in Italy in the 12 months ending in June 2024.
The average nutritional profile of food consumption (in supermarkets and hypermarkets) shows:
- fats on the rise (+0,8% total fats, and +0,9% saturated fats)
- stable carbohydrates (-0,1%),
- sugars down (-1,5%)
- proteins on the rise (+0,9%, in line with the previous 12 months, +1%)
- dietary fibre slightly increased (+0,3%).
It follows a slight increase in the energy value of the meta-product Immagino, with an increase in calories (+0,5%).
The analysts, unfortunately, do not monitor average salt levels, which is also important in view of product reformulation and other measures to protect public health.
2) 'Made in Italy' in decline
The call to Italianness appears on the label of 26.411 products. This is the most important basket among those analyzed by Osservatorio Immagino. It is worth a turnover of almost 11,4 billion euros (in the supermarket and hypermarket channel alone) but continues to lose ground, with the exception of DOP.
The turnover grew by +2,1%, but volume sales decreased by -2%, as in the previous year. In detail, in order of weight in the basket:
- the Italian flag, which 'waves' on over 15 thousand products, is associated with an increase in turnover of +3,3% (up to almost 7 billion euros) but a drop in sales volume of -1,6%. UHT and fresh milk, fourth range vegetables (packaged) and third processing poultry (i.e. meat products with condiments and spices and ready to cook) are doing badly
- 100% Italian, a claim present on over 8.500 products, increased turnover by +2,4% but lost -2,1% in sales volume. UHT milk, fresh milk, semolina pasta, snacks and alcoholic beers are decreasing
- produced in Italy, a claim present on 5.771 products, shows the sign of high prices with a drastic drop in sales in volume (-3,6%) which corresponds to a slight increase in value (+0,7%, for a total of 1,4 billion euros). Italian wine (Doc/Docg and Igp/Igt), Easter eggs, fourth range vegetables, classic sparkling wine and semolina pasta are decreasing.
3) Geographical indications
Geographical indications which certify the Italianness of the products are not doing better. Sales of DOP cold cuts, DOC/DOCG classic wine and sparkling wine are falling. IGP and IGT products are also losing ground, in particular cold cuts, wines, semolina pasta and bread substitutes:
– DOP. The protected designation of origin is the first geographical indication in terms of sales value, over 723 million euros. And it is the only one to record, in the 12 months ended in June 2024, an increase in sales in terms of volume (+2,1%) and value (+3,5%)
- DOC. The 2.282 wines labelled in this way generated almost 538 million euros, +1,5% in value but -2,2% in volume
- DOCG. The 989 wines with this indication lost a good -2,8% in sales by volume. The turnover, however, remains almost stable (+0,6%) at over 304 million euros
- IGP. The 1.222 products accompanied by this indication are worth over 477 million euros, with a turnover down by -0,5% and sales volume down by -2,3%
– IGT. Sales of the 932 wines with Typical Geographical Indication collapsed in volume (-7,7%), with a slight drop in value (-0,9%, 176 million euros).
4) Regionality on the label
Indication of regional origin appears on 10.294 products, for a total value of over 3 billion euros.
The trend of sales is always negative in volume (-2,6%) and substantially stable in value, +0,7%.
4.1) First regions in decline
The first three regions in the ranking by turnover confirm the described trend:
- Trentino Alto Adige. Stable in first place, with over 392 million euros in sales developed by 967 products, it loses -3% of sales in volume and maintains stable turnover, +0,4%. Classic sparkling wine, cold cuts, UHT milk, diced salami, yogurt (low fat and drinkable) and apples are decreasing. Good, however, are DOC or DOCG wines, whole and functional yogurt, fresh milk and mozzarella.
- Sicily. Stable in second place in the ranking with a turnover of over 377 million euros for its 1.176 products, it loses -3,5% of the volumes sold and maintains a stable turnover, +0,2%. Very bad are the DOC or DOCG wines, multipack ice creams, alcoholic beers and fortified/passito wine.
- Piedmont. Third position was confirmed, with over 319 million euros in sales made from 1.271 products. Sales down -3,6% in volume and -0,5% in value. Very bad for DOC or DOCG wines, other traditional fresh cheeses, crescenza, third processing of beef, sweet charmat sparkling wine and UHT milk.
4.2) Three growing regions
From the collapse of sales three regions are saved. In order of turnover:
– Sardinia. In seventh position in the national ranking, the Sardinian origin qualifies 604 references with over 207 million euros of turnover and records excellent performances, +4,8% in value and +3,2% in volume, thanks also to UHT milk, DOC/DOCG wines, mozzarella and fresh milk.
– Molise. Semolina pasta, whole wheat pasta and tomato purees drive sales of the 160 products that indicate their origin from this region on the label. Sales grow in value (+6,1%), up to 122 million euros, but above all in volume (+8,4%) in contrast to the high prices
- Valle d'Aosta. With a basket of just 30 products, and a turnover of 11 million euros, the Aosta Valley origin drives sales in terms of value (+8,5%) and volume (+4,2%), thanks to the positive performance of the fourth poultry processing and sliced table cheeses.
5) 'Free from', 14 thousand food products
Almost 14 thousand products with an annual turnover of more than 8 billion euros, present on the label or packaging a claim referring to the lower presence or total absence of a nutrient, ingredient or additive. Turnover increased by +3%, while sales volume decreased by -0,9%.
As many as 12 'free from' claims are accompanied by an increase in sales in volume. The trend confirms the trend towards the reduction of sugars and fats, as well as the attention to food safety and environmental sustainability.
Positive performances in terms of sales volume, the following products belong to the category labeled with the following claims:
– low fat, +0,6% (+0,2% in value), thanks to Greek yogurt, UHT milk and its substitutes, traditional biscuits, fresh cheeses, seed oils, mozzarella and potatoes
– low sugar, +4% (+9,4%) and without added sugars, +4,3% (+8,7%). The best-selling products are chewing gum, milk substitutes, fruit-based drinks, Greek yogurt, jams, preserved fruit and healthy biscuits
– without additives +0,4 (+3,6%), thanks above all to the positive contribution provided by cold cuts, ready-made first courses, canned meat, extruded products, sweeteners, shelled dried fruit and vegetable spreads
– without glutamate +1,6% (+3,9%) and without GMO, +2,6% (5,3%), both positive thanks above all to the trend in consumption of ready-made first courses, canned meat, turkey and fresh stuffed pasta
- without antibiotics, +2,6% (+5,2%) with fish specialities, chicken eggs, chicken and cold cuts which increased sales
– without hydrogenated fats, +5,8% (+10,2%), driven by sweet snacks, biscuits, piadinas and ready-made cakes
– without polyphosphates +1,3% (+3,1%), but with a drop in sales of sausages and cured meats (diced, sliced and pre-cooked)
– no/limited use of pesticides, +4,9 (+11,2%), in fourth range vegetables, semolina pasta, strawberries and frozen natural vegetables/fruits
– without/zero residues +15,5% (+17,8%). The main drivers of sales are semolina pasta, fourth range vegetables, berries, apricots and frozen natural vegetables/fruits
– glyphosate free, +25,9% (+22,4%), identified on 75 products and supported by the sale of semolina pasta, wholemeal pasta and egg pasta
– aspartame free, +3,9% (+5,6%), which appears on 60 products, essentially sweeteners, low-fat yogurt and orange juice.
6) 'Rich in', almost 11 thousand products
The basket of the 10.725 products labeled as rich or enriched with an ingredient or component is worth a turnover of over 5 billion euros. Overall, sales in value have grown (+3,4%), while those in volume have decreased (-1,3%).
The trend of sales in volume shows three balanced claims and two growing:
- proteins. The most relevant of the 'rich in' claims, present on 3.337 products, generates a turnover of almost 1,9 billion euros. Having disappeared the liveliness detected in the previous editions of Osservatorio Immagino, it marks a stability of volumes (+0,5%) and an increase in turnover of +4,5%. The most dynamic categories are Greek yogurt, ready-made vegetable dishes, parmesan cheeses and similar, sports nutrition, fermented milk, fresh cheeses and functional yogurt
– fibers. Among the over 4 products accompanied by this claim, rusks, frozen vegetables and natural fruit, wholemeal pasta, ready-made vegetable dishes, traditional biscuits, soft gluten-free breads, UHT milk substitutes and sandwiches are growing. Volume sales stable at +0,5%, value 5,1%
- soccer. Present on 790 products, this recall is associated with stable sales in volume (+0,1%) and growth in value (+3,1%). Fermented milk, other traditional fresh cheeses, chewing gum, UHT milk and infant formula are doing well
– lactic ferments. The 537 references in this basket achieved a +3,5% in volume and a +5,6% in value, exceeding 431 million euros in turnover. Fermented milk/kefir and whole yogurt performed well
– magnesium. Present on 449 references, the claim generates an increase of +5,8% in value (for a total of over 137 million euros) and +1,5% in volume. Particularly brilliant performances in sports nutrition, shelled dried fruit, supplements, breakfast cereals and chamomile.
7) Intolerances and allergies
The 10.813 products which highlight on the label the absence of an allergen or an ingredient that can cause food intolerances are worth 4,7 billion euros. Turnover increased by +1,4% but volumes decreased by -1,6%.
Volume sales decrease for the products:
– gluten free (-2,1 in volume, but +1,3% in value) and those certified with the crossed-out ear of corn logo of the Italian Celiac Association (-3% in volume, +1% in value). Baked goods, cereals, snacks, jams, Greek yogurt, gluten-free pasta, soft breads and frozen vegetable products are holding up well. The more specific products for celiacs are growing, while products such as meat or cured meats that have a much broader and more generic target are decreasing, observe the analysts of Osservatorio Immagino;
– without milk (-3,2% in volume, +0,3% in value).
The sales of the other three claims, however, remained stable:
- lactose-free, +0,7% in volume, +2,1% in value. Cold cuts, parmesan cheeses and similar, whole/piece table cheeses, mozzarella, fermented milk/kefir and supplements were the categories with the highest growth. Sausages, fresh milk, UHT milk substitutes and sliced table cheeses were, instead, the most penalising categories
- without yeast, +0,4% in volume, +4,5% in value. The growth obtained by the third processing of pork, traditional biscuits and sweet spreadable creams were not sufficient to counterbalance the contractions of cold cuts, sausages and snacks
– without eggs, +0,4% in volume, +5,6% in value. Of the 144 products accompanied by this claim, the best performances were achieved by fresh non-filled pasta, mayonnaise, healthy biscuits and fresh gluten-free pasta.
8) The veg world
The 12.951 products proposed with a claim that refers to a particular lifestyle are worth a turnover of over 4 billion euros, increased by +3,8%, while sales in volume have slightly decreased (-0,9%).
In the vegan world, a single claim is associated with an increase in volume sales:
– veg, present on 4.876 products, increases its turnover by +3,9%, for a total of 2,5 billion euros, but volumes remain at -0,3%
– vegetarian, which qualifies for 1.991 products, develops a turnover of 1,5 billion euros (+1,9%) but loses -2,5% in volume
- vegan is the only one of the three claims with a growth in sales in volume (+1,1%), as well as in value (+5,8%). Present on 3.703 products, it is worth 1,2 billion euros in turnover. The very positive market trends of substitutes for those of animal origin indicate that the vegan claim 'works' better in products aimed at specific targets rather than on those intended for a wider public, analysts explain.
9) Organic
The organic increases turnover with 7.967 products available in supermarkets and hypermarkets (+1,7%, for over 1,2 billion euros), but loses in volume (-1,6%). Fresh milk, fourth range vegetables and natural frozen fruit and vegetables are doing badly.
Good extra virgin olive oil and chicken eggs. Products that, in the first part of 2024, showed growth in sales volumes, favored by the return of the inflation rate, the report states.
10) Halal still growing
Both certifications which certify the suitability of foods to religious dictates are growing:
– kosher. The 1.744 products certified as in line with the dictates of the Jewish religion generate a turnover of 975 million euros, +8,4%. Sales in volume are substantially stable (-0,3%).
- halal continues to grow. The 558 products compliant with the rules of Islam are worth a turnover of 281 million euros, up 9,2%, as well as sales in volume, up 2,1%.
11) Beneficial ingredients
Almost 17 out of 100 products highlight the presence of a 'super ingredient', which improves its organoleptic profile, its nutritional value or, more simply, makes it tastier and more appealing.
Overall, sales of the 14.222 references in this basket exceeded 4,5 billion euros in turnover. The trend is positive in value (+4,5%) but negative in volume (-1,5%).
Among the traditional ingredients only two claims are associated with a positive performance:
- nuts. The claim found on 518 products shows a growth of +6,6% in value and +3,7% in volume, approaching 185 million euros in turnover, thanks to shelled dried fruit, functional yogurt, basic and fresh ready-made sauces, loaf bread, fourth-range vegetables and breakfast cereals;
– caramel. Last in terms of turnover (156 million euros and 480 products), this claim is first in terms of growth rates: +20,5% sales in value, but +2,4% also in volume. Fresh desserts, tub ice creams, sweet snacks, meal replacements and sports nutrition are driving the trend.
12) Superfruit
With its 3.017 products this significant basket has largely exceeded the 915 million euro turnover, highlighting a growth of +6,4% in sales by value and an increase of +1,2% in sales by volume.
Except almond and blueberry, with volume sales decreasing by approximately -1%, the values associated with the claims of this group are always positive:
– coconut. The performance of the 446 products accompanied by this claim is among the brightest in the superfruit basket. In the 12 months ending in June 2024, sales increased by +10,9% in value and +6,4% in volume. Whole yogurt, Greek yogurt, yogurt substitutes, sweet snacks, sports nutrition and coconut (fruit) performed very well;
- mango. Cited on 268 products, with over 61 million euros in turnover, it marks +14,6% in sales in value and +6,2% in volume. Energy drinks, yogurt, multipack ice creams, fruit-based drinks, dried fruit, fresh juices and yogurt substitutes are doing very well;
– cashews. Reported on the labels of 249 products, it is worth a turnover of almost 66 million euros, up by +16,8%. In volume, sales increased by +12,6%. The driving force is shelled dried fruit, breakfast cereals and multipack ice cream;
– avocado. The evolution of products associated with this superfruit continues unabated. Reported on the label of 67 products that mark a +21,9% in sales in volume and +25,3% in value, up to over 43 million euros. Exotic fruit, vegetable spreads and soft gluten-free breads are driving the trend.
13) Super cereals
The basket which brings together eight claims belonging to the world of cereals, has 2.150 products and a turnover of 569 million euros, increased by +5,3% in value and barely moved, +0,9%, in volume, with alternating performances.
The positive sign in volume sales is only recorded for
- oatmeal. With a turnover of 285 million euros, the presence of this ingredient marks an increase in sales of +10,7% in value and +5,7% in volume. The most important increases concern UHT milk substitutes (oat drink), breakfast cereals, traditional and healthy biscuits, crackers, sweet snacks, cheese and sandwich substitutes;
– rice flour. High appreciation among consumers for products with this ingredient. The 159 products that contain it have achieved an increase of +8,8% in their turnover, close to 81 million euros, and have increased sales volumes by +2,6%. Flours, wholemeal pasta, cakes and pastries, fresh non-filled pasta, healthy biscuits and baked goods, cereals and gluten-free snacks are doing very well.
14) Sweet stevia
Between the two sweeteners monitored, one sinks the average:
– cane sugar, reported on 352 products, is in decline: -6% sales in volume and -2,4% in value (92 million euros). Sugar as is remains on the shelves, as well as biscuits, snacks and rusks that contain it;
– stevia, instead, is growing. The recall increases sales by +1,5% in volume and +4,2% in value. Among the 132 products that contain it – with a turnover of over 43 million euros – tea-based drinks, sweets, sports nutrition, syrups for drinks and other infusions are doing well.
15) Seeds. Chia is good, hemp is very bad
The presence of seeds is highlighted on over 500 products. The basket as a whole is worth a turnover of over 127 million euros, up by +2,9%. Sales in volume have instead decreased by -2,5%. In detail, the trend of the various claims:
– flax seeds are associated with a substantial stability in sales in volume (-0,6%, but +4% in value);
– pumpkin seeds lose -2% in turnover and -3,1% in volume. Sweet snacks, breakfast cereals, functional yogurt and crackers are decreasing;
- Sesame seeds, -7,5% numerical sales, -1% turnover. Sandwiches, fish specialties, breadsticks and other baked goods, cereals, gluten-free snacks are down;
– chia seeds. Sales are up +18,5% in value and +1,4% in volume, despite the significant increase in prices. Definitely brilliant results for healthy biscuits, chia seeds, breakfast cereals, crispy rolls, soft gluten-free breads, rusks and cereals;
– hemp. Heavy drops for foods associated with this claim: -5,9% in value and -12,4% in volume. The worst decline concerns other infusions, crispy bars, UHT juices, seed oil. Only breadsticks, breakfast cereals and frozen meat achieved sales growth.
16) Spices on the way down
The three claims relating to spices monitored by Osservatorio Immagino appear on 854 products, for a turnover of almost 86 million euros burdened by a drop in sales of -4,6% in value and -8,3% in volume, in the last 12 months ending in June 2024:
- ginger. The first claim of the basket present on 505 products for a turnover of 59 million euros, drops -4,8% in value and -8% in volume. Other infusions, teas, chocolate bars and low-fat yogurt are decreasing
– turmeric marks the worst performance. The 211 products (value 16 million euros) that report their presence lose -9,4% in value and -12,1% in volume. Very bad other infusions, ready-made vegetable dishes and ready-made first courses, functional yogurt, whole yogurt and tea
– cinnamon, finally, reported on 190 products, is worth a turnover of over 15 million euros, down -2,9%. The drop in sales in volume is also drastic, -9,1%. Other infusions, teas, fresh desserts, yogurt, supplements and jams are doing badly.
17) Superfoods
The basket of nine superfoods monitored by Osservatorio Immagino shows an overall a stable turnover and volumes down by -3,6%. Reported on 788 products these beneficial ingredients are worth 149 million euros.
The best performances concern two claims at the bottom of the ranking by turnover
– matcha, Japanese green tea, has 36 products and a turnover of 3,5 million euros. Sales are growing in value (+12,2%) and volume (+9,3%), thanks to tea, smoothies and milkshakes, supplements, ice creams, desserts and tea-based drinks
– tahini, with 15 references and a value of 2,5 million euros in sales, increases sales by +14,3% in value and +11,1% in volume. Sesame seed sauce is consumed as is or used as a base for making hummus at home, which in the packaged version can contain additives, non-extra virgin olive oil and too much salt, as we have seen. (2)
Among other claims, sales in the volume of royal jelly and ginseng remain stable (respectively, +0,3% and +0,6%), while they decrease in all other cases. In particular:
- chili, first in the ranking with 50 million euros in turnover, -4,9% in volume, with takings stable at +0,9
– peanut butter, -10% in volume, -6,9 in value
– edamame, -6,5% in volume, -4,2% in value
– goji, -17,2% in volume, -16,2% in value
– spirulina, -7,4% in volume, -5,5% in value.
18) Processing methods, the EVOO case
The processing method of food appears on the labels of 3.957 products. The basket is worth 1,5 billion euros in sales and has gained +11,5% in value, compared to a substantial stability in volumes (-0,4%).
The price increases on extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) are well represented by the trend photographed by Osservatorio Immagino:
– 'cold-pressed/extracted', the claim of this product, marks a record increase in turnover, +39,5%, reaching over 456 million euros, so much so that it earns first place in the ranking for turnover. Numerical sales instead lose -2,2%
– 'drawn', instead grows both in value (+5,8%) and in volume (+3,5%). The good performance of semolina pasta, wholemeal pasta, egg pasta and fresh gluten-free pasta stands out. Fresh pasta, filled and not, bucks the trend
– 'hand-crafted', third claim with a turnover of over 150 million euros developed by only 308 references, has achieved good success in the 12 months recorded: sales have grown by double digits both in value and volume (respectively +11,3% and +10,6%). Good performances for tuna in oil, other canned fish, tuna in brine, sliced meats and tub ice cream
– 'unfiltered', claim present on 187 products, marks an annual decrease of -3,9% in volumes sold but an increase of +10% in sales in value, achieving almost 144 million euros. The ones that reduced sales in volume were mainly alcoholic beers and extra virgin olive oil
– 'drying' appears on 375 products that generate 128 million in turnover. The trend is positive for sales in value (+6,5%) but even more so for those in volume (+8,2%), thanks to an intense promotional activity especially on semolina pasta, wholemeal pasta and egg pasta
– 'slow/natural leavening' instead shows all negative indicators. -7,9% sales in volume and -2,7% in value, equal to almost 124 million euros. Frozen foods in the pizza category and snacks are doing badly
– 'not fried' marks the stagnation of numerical sales but increases by +5,4% those in value, to over 112 million euros. Extruded products and snacks do badly, crunchy bars and biscuits do well
– 'artisanal' loses sales both in value (-3,8%) and volume (-6,3%). The 734 products that bear this indication on the label are worth just over 104 million euros. Bad performance for alcoholic beers, cold cuts, other fish preserves, brown liqueurs, breadsticks and fresh desserts. On the rise, however, for crisps, fresh stuffed pasta, panettone, tuna in oil, cakes and pastries
– 'smoking', last claim of the basket, concerns only 88 references and is worth 55 million euros. The poor performance of fish specialties determines a drop in sales both in value (-16,9%) and in volume (-15,5%).
19) The consistency of food
The trend of sales of products accompanied by a claim relating to the consistency of the food still often seems to be subjected to the diktat of high prices.
Seven of the 12 claims of this basket sell less in quantitative terms, but not in value:
– 'crunchy', -4,3%. +1,9% in value. Frozen foods (breaded prepared fish, pizza and savoury specialities), multipack ice creams and breakfast cereals
- 'soft', -1,2% in volume, +2,5% in value. Good sandwich bread, sandwich bread, ground coffee, fresh non-filled pasta and sliced table cheeses
– 'tender' loses -4,7% in volume, while maintaining a +1,6% in value. Chocolate bars and potatoes are growing, biscuits (traditional, wholemeal and healthy), nougat and sandwiches are decreasing
- 'stuffed', -0,7% in volume, +5,7% in value. Growing fresh stuffed pasta, sweets, sweet snacks and chewing gum
– 'stuffed' has the record for the decrease in quantitative sales: -6,2%, while in value it remains stable at +0,3%. Sweet and savoury snacks, pastry, frozen pizza and frozen pastry/sweets are bad
– 'soft' loses -3,8% in volume and keeps turnover substantially stable (-0,5%). Frozen pizza, cold cuts, snacks, other traditional fresh cheeses are bad
– 'velvety', -3,8% in volume and -0,4% in value. Negative trend for coffee (ground and soluble), ready-made first courses and fresh non-filled pasta.
They grow up instead on both sides of volume and value:
– 'creamy', +3,4% in volume, +7.1% in value. Whole yogurt, fresh cheeses, sweet spreads and tomato purees experienced the greatest growth
- 'subtle', +5,5% in volume, +6,1% in value. Fresh stuffed pasta, cold cuts, piadinas and crackers are doing well
- 'coarse', +9,9% in volume, +10,3% in value. The best performing categories were semolina pasta, fresh stuffed pasta, wholemeal/spelt/kamut/legume-based pasta and fresh gluten-free pasta
– 'fragrant', +1,3% in volume, +8,6% in volume. Positive trend for crackers, fresh bread substitutes, frozen pastries/sweets and bases.
Marta Strinati
Footnotes
(1) Immagino Observatory, sixteenth edition 2024 • 2 https://servizi.gs1it.org/osservatori/osservatorio-immagino-16/
(2) Marta Strinati. Chickpea hummus, 8 products compared. GIFT (Great Italian Food Trade).
A professional journalist since January 1995, she has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and periodicals (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). She is the author of journalistic studies on food and has published the book "Reading labels to know what we eat".
