The Coop 2022 Report, presented in digital preview on 8.9.22, offers an analysis of the effects of the systemic crisis - war, inflation and recession, climate crisis - on the daily life of residents in Italy.
While waiting for the general winter, the only good news is the resilience of the Italians. Which have so far managed not to give up food consumption, despite the economic and social difficulties.
Coop Report 2022, the dark scenario
The scenery which follows the involvement of the European Union in the fratricidal conflict in Ukraine is getting darker. The Coop Report summarizes some aspects:
- food poverty is growing rapidly (also due to speculation on commodities),
- the European trade balance is sinking like never before,
- the climate emergency has a deadly impact on everyone's daily life
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has blown the fire, generating an immediate recessive effect on the world economy:
- global GDP discounts from + 5,7% in 2021 to + 2,9% forecast in 2022.
- for Italy, GDP growth forecasts stand at + 3,2% for 2022 and + 1,3% for 2023. But the Bank of Italy does not rule out a return to a negative GDP in 2023 ( -2%).
The impact of the crisis on food consumption
The food supply chain is stressed by the ongoing crisis, given the involvement of global supply chains.
Inflation in Italy on processed food products it reached + 10%. A little less worse, so far, than Germany (+ 13,7%) and Spain (+ 13,5%).
Food consumption of the Italians, however, still resist the high prices:
- sales volumes mark + 7,8% (first half 2022 vs 2019), with a
- trends still positive. + 0,5% in Italy, compared to -5,4% in the United Kingdom, -3,7% in Germany, -2,3% in France and -1,3% in Spain.
Winter just around the corner saves food
The general winter it will bring with it a further increase in food prices, as well of electricity and gas bills. But the Italians still seem not to worry about the trouble (or its causes).
Almost half of the citizens, according to Nomisma's projections on sample surveys, it declares to be willing to reduce the quantity but not the quality of food. By cooking more, as in lockdown.
Less food, but Italian and sustainable
Italianness and sustainability these are the attributes of the foods that the sample of interviewees declared indispensable. At the expense of ethnic foods, free from, ready meals. Even organic could lose ground (-38%), unfortunately. A sign that Italian consumers still do not understand its essential and unparalleled value for health BIO LINKS AND IMMUNE SYSTEM and the fight against the climate emergency.
Le private-label (retailer brand, MDD) continue to develop, with a market share approaching 2022% in 30 (+2,0 compared to 2019). And the branded industry (IDM) is losing ground as a result. With a further decrease, -1,8%, compared to 2019 (with a market share from 14,9% to 13,1%).
GDO in the grip
For large-scale distribution the current crisis poses serious problems. Distributors are in fact squeezed between the increases in industrial and cost-of-energy price lists and the reduced purchasing capacity of consumers.
Some rumors imbalances are unsustainable:
- compared to an annual increase in the prices of food goods sold by industry to large-scale distribution chains of 15%, inflation at sales is just over + 9% (the difference between the purchase price and the sale price marks a -5,7% to the detriment of large retailers). Moreover, the greatest increases affect basic products. Seed oil + 40,9%, olive oil + 33,1%, pasta + 30,9%, flour + 25,4%,
- the energy costs of large-scale distribution which in 2019 were worth 1,7% of turnover on the basis of futures on energy will triple, reaching an incidence of 2022% in 4,7 and 5,2% in 2023,
- il retail food is a structurally low-profit sector, where small variations in margins can seriously compromise the stability of the income statements. Every 100 euros spent by the consumer they generate for the retailer a net profit of just over 1,5 euros.
Discount ed ecommerce
in 2022, after the slowdown imposed by the first phase of the pandemic, the large-scale retail trade marks a slight return to expansions of the surfaces, mostly to the detriment of the proximity points of sale. The discount, while the decline of the hypermarket continues.
THEecommerce (e-grocery) has lost the thrust dictated by lockdown and remains at very low altitudes, especially when compared to the rest of Europe. In 2021 it stands at 2,9% with forecasts for 2030 that do not exceed 6% against a very different dynamism in the home of the British (from 12% to 19%) or the French (from 8,6% to 16% ).
The beacon of the Coop brand product
The scenery found in the Coop 2022 Report seems to be rewarding the choice of Coop, announced in May 2022, to invest more in branded products.
'It must have also been a reckless choice according to some, but born from objective data that the Coop 2022 Report confirms', comments Maura Latini, managing director of Coop Italia.
The choice it seems well settled. 'In the breakfast segment, the first to be renewed, in the first two months of launch (June / July) we recorded an increase in the market share of the branded product in quantity of 8,3%, therefore passing from 23.6% to 31,9, XNUMX%. The savings potential for households is considerable. First results in a difficult situation that we claim with a fair amount of pride'.
Defending purchasing power
'After thirty years the high cost of living has returned with high inflation not seen since the XNUMXs; for many consumers and many businesses it is a completely unknown situation. Likewise, wages remain frozen and the gap between a growing part of the country that remains fragile and the wealthiest classes is striking in the Report', remembers Marco Pedroni, President of Coop Italia and Ancc-Coop (National Association of Consumer Cooperatives). '
In view of the electoral appointment a request already made is reiterated. 'There is a need (...) to divert incisive resources in favor of consumption by acting for example on the tax exemption of basic products and with a renewed environmental policy in line with the emergency of the moment'.
All numbers of the Coop 2022 Report
The Coop 2022 Report - 'Consumption and lifestyles of the Italians of today and tomorrow' - is drawn up by the Studies Office of Ancc-Coop (National Association of Consumer Cooperatives) with the scientific collaboration of Nomisma, the analysis support of Nielsen and the original contributions of Gs1-Osservatorio Immagino, Iri Information Resources, Mediobanca Research Department, Nomisma Energia, Npd.
All infographics of the Report are available at this link.
Professional journalist since January 1995, he has worked for newspapers (Il Messaggero, Paese Sera, La Stampa) and periodicals (NumeroUno, Il Salvagente). She is the author of journalistic surveys on food, she has published the book "Reading labels to know what we eat".